Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
My retired neighbor waved me down in the street early this summer. He asked if I could help him put a large tarp over his RV as the forecast was for rain that night. He had been out to western North Dakota and upon driving in a 50 mile per hour cross wind the entire roof membrane blew off his RV. He had a look of dread on his face and after rounding up another neighbor we were able to get it tarped down. The dread on his face came from his talk with his insurance adjuster who had just left the yard. I had never seen something like that, but evidently roofs blowing off RV’s don’t just happen in tornado’s. We took the tarp down a few times this summer on clear days so he could drive it to get repair estimates. After
a few months he finally got word that he’ll get some insurance to fix it but he still had that look of dread on his face as I’m sure whatever the amount was didn’t cover the repair. He said it’s one of those situations where you have to fix it, but the repair bill is almost as much as what the thing is worth. My neighbors RV woes reminded me of a few recent articles pointing to lower RV sales as an economic indicator. Maybe my neighbor will be able to get a deal in a high inventory environment but his trade in will be another “story”.
The USDA left the U.S. soybean yield unchanged at 53.2 bu/acre in the monthly WASDE report. Production saw a small 3 million bushel decrease to 4.586 billion bushels on 86.271 million acres. Last year US farmers harvested 4.165 billion bushels on 82.356 million acres and a 50.6 bu/acre yield. U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2024/25 include lower beginning stocks, production and ending stocks. Lower beginning stocks reflect a slight increase to crush for 2023/24. With 2024/25 soybean crush and exports unchanged, ending stocks are projected at 550 million bushels, down 10 million from last month. Argentina and Brazil estimates remained unchanged at 51.0 MMT and 169.0 MMT, respectively. 169 MMT would be a new record for Brazil.
2024-25 U.S. corn production came in 32 million bushels higher than expected at 15.186 billion bushels as the 82.71 million harvested acres remained unchanged. This was 40 million bushels higher than the August report. Last year US farmers harvested 15.342 billion bushels on 86.513 million acres and a yield of 177.3 bu/acre. This month’s 2024/25 U.S. corn outlook also showed smaller supplies and a modest decline in ending stocks. Projected beginning stocks for 2024/25 are 55 million bushels lower based on increases in exports and corn used for ethanol for 2023/24. Corn exports are up 20% compared to last year. Total U.S. corn use is unchanged at 15.0 billion bushels.
2024/25 all wheat stocks remained at 828 million bushels from August as production estimates were unchanged. The market deferred to the September 30th Small Grains Summary. 2024/25 World wheat stocks increased 0.6 MMT to 257.22 MMT vs. expectations of a 1.2 MMT cut to 255.4 MMT. Russian production was unchanged at 83.0 MMT while Ukraine production increased 0.7 MMT to 22.3 MMT. EU production was cut 4.0 MMT while Australia was increased 2.0 MMT.
Stats Canada reports total stocks of wheat fell 18.5% year over year to 4.6 MMT as of July 31st. The decline was partially due to a 1.0% lower national supply. Wheat excluding durum fell 20.7% to 4.0 MMT. Exports fell 1.2% to 25.2 MMT but remained above the 5-year average.
Two-week forecasts call for warmer than normal temperatures for most of the U.S. as we close out September. This is a favorable harvest forecast.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.