Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
There’s an old saying that history repeats itself. When I was young, we had a family friend who worked at the maintenance department for the city of Grand Forks. He and his coworkers had their hands full back in those days as Dutch Elm disease was devastating the area. It was sad seeing many of those elm trees go. It was believed that the elm bark beetles that are native to Asia got into the United States in the late 1920’s from log shipments that were to be used as veneer in the Ohio furniture industry. By 1989 it was estimated that 75% of the 77 million elms in North America from 1930 had been lost.
Flash forward to today and it was believed that another pest native to Asia found its way into the US in wood shipping crates / pallets. The emerald ash borer was first identified near Detroit in 2002 and within initial infestation trees are expected to die within 10 years without control measures. It has killed tens of millions of ash trees so far and threatens to kill most of the 8.7 BILLION ash trees throughout North America. The raw numbers show that it’s going to make the Dutch Elm problem look like a minor skirmish. Last week, the North Dakota Department of Agriculture identified emerald ash borer in insect traps in LaMoure County. My hour of dread has arrived. I have 14 green ash trees around the perimeter of my front yard. I wish I had a time machine to go back and tell whoever did that to diversify. But for now, I would be wise to look into an outdoor wood boiler for heating my house.
The Pro Farmer Tour confirmed a good incoming US corn crop with a few exceptions like Minnesota. The tours average yield of 181.1 bu/acre puts production at 14.979 billion bushels. Their yield is 1.1% lower than the USDA’s 183.1 bu/acre. The “I” states are all record or near record tour yield estimates. Iowa and Illinois estimates for the Pro Farmer Tour are at record highs. For Iowa, the Pftour24 yield is at 192.79 bu/acre, a tour record and up 5.5% on the year. USDA has Iowa corn yield at a record 209, up 4% YOY. For Illinois, the corn yield samples on pftour24 averaged a record 204.14 bu/acre, up 5.4% YOY, topping the old tour high of 196.96 from 2014. USDA has IL corn yield +9% YOY at 225 bu/acre. The Pftour24 measured Minnesota’s corn yield at 164.9 bu/acre, the tour’s lowest since 2012 and down 9% from 2023. USDA has MN corn yield unchanged YOY at 185 bu/acre. Indiana and Nebraska Pftour24 estimates are looking a little better than last year, but well below the USDA estimates. Nebraska and South Dakota estimates are similar to last year.
The Pro Farmer Tour estimates U.S. soybean crop yield at 54.9 bu/ acre and production at 4.740 billion bushels. Their yield is 3.2% higher than the USDA’s 53.2 bu/acre August estimate. Illinois and Iowa are on track for bumper yields. The Pro Farmer Tour is showing high pod counts across much the Midwest, now the question is how they will fill out? With a couple weeks of hot dry weather, we will likely see ratings drop next week but it won’t likely cause significant damage. The Pftour24 has Iowa pod counts for soybeans were up 10% YOY and close to the tour’s 2010 record of 1347 pods. USDA pegs IA soy yield up 5% YOY. Illinois pod counts for soybeans were the tour’s highest since 2000 and up nearly 12% YOY. USDA has soy yield +5% YOY. Minnesota pod counts for soybeans were near the 3 year avg, and USDA sees MN soy yield slightly above the 3 year avg. Indiana saw huge pod counts for their soybeans, the tour’s highest since 2002 and +7.6% YOY. USDA’s record Indiana soy yield forecast looking good. Nebraska pod counts for soybeans were a 3 year high though below the 1200+ years of 20182021. Ohio pod counts for soybeans are off nearly 2% from 2023, but USDA is looking for a record yield in 2024. South Dakota pod counts for soybeans rose 1.3% from last year’s tour. USDA projects South Dakota soy yield up 7% YOY.
US winter wheat area under drought increased 2% to 45%. US spring wheat and durum area under drought held steady at 21% and 39%, respectively. The 6 to 10 day outlook cooled off with cooler temperatures coming into the northern plains. The Pacific Northwest is called much warmer and drier while the southern plains shows good precipitation chances.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.