Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
I’m hearing plenty of advertisements to keep AM radio in every vehicle. It’s probably because I listen to AM radio all the time during my commute. It’s good to hear market updates on the drive in and listen to country oldies on the drive home. The AM radio has survived many of the other entertainment options that have come and gone in vehicles including vinyl, 8-tracks, cassettes and CD’s but it’s facing challenges from changing technology. It was originally reported that Tesla, BMW, Ford and other manufacturers were not including AM radio in electric and newer models setting off a firestorm of opposition from people older than me. Because of their old age, Congress might actually agree on something in 2024. The AM for Every Vehicle Act has broad bipartisan support and recently passed a house sub panel. Proponents note that AM radio plays a critical role in transmitting information during emergencies. They don’t want consumers to have AM radio hidden behind costly digital paywalls. Opponents state that 97% of Americans have a cellphone, which is already designed to receive wireless emergency alerts. Of that 97%, 85% of those are smart phones which can disseminate information just as well or better than AM radio. Automakers have also cited that interference from electric motors can cause static and noise interference on AM transmissions. The arguments on each side are valid, but on this one I think the old politicians will get their way.
The monthly WASDE report estimates US corn production at 15.147 billion bushels with a record yield of 183.1 bu/acre. This would be the third largest crop on record if realized. The “I” states have all projected new statewide average yield records with Illinois 11.0 bu/acre higher than its previous record. Corn planted acreage was reduced 800,000 to 90.7 million acres and harvested acreage reduced 700,000 to 82.7 ma. US ending stocks are projected at 2.073 billion bushels a decline of 24 mb from the July report. Global corn production for 2024/25 is estimated at 1,219 MMT, down 4.97 MMT from the July report. Global ending stocks are estimated at 310.17 MMT, 1.47 MMT lower. Brazil production remained unchanged at 122.0 MMT while Argentina was lowered 2.0 MMT to 50.0 MMT.
The 2024/25 outlook for U.S. soybeans includes higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Harvested area is forecast at 86.3 million acres, up 1.0 million from July. The first survey-based soybean yield forecast is 53.2 bushels per acre, up 1.2 bushels from last month. This was also above the average pre-report estimates of 52.5 bpa. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio are expected to see record yields around 1 bpa higher than the previous record. Soybean production for 2024/25 is forecast at 4.6 billion bushels, up 154 million on higher area and yield. With soybean exports up 25 million bushels on higher supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 560 million bushels, up 125 million from last month. This was well above the average trade guess of an already large 472 million bushels. Global 2024/25 soybean production is increased 6.9 million tons to 428.7 MMT on higher production for the United States, Ukraine, Russia, and India. Global 2024/25 soybean ending stocks are increased 6.5 MMT to 134.3 MMT mainly on higher stocks for China, the United States, and Argentina partly offset by lower stocks for Brazil.
The monthly WASDE report estimates all US wheat production at 1.98 billion bushels vs. expectations of 2.017 BB. Planted and harvested acreage were reduced 900,000 each with harvested area at 37.9 million. National yield is expected at 52.2 bu/acre. Winter wheat production is estimated at 1.36 billion bushels, slightly higher than expectations of 1.346 BB. Hard red is up 2% from last month at 776 million bushels, while soft red is down 1% at 342 mb. US spring wheat yield is estimated at 52.6 bu/acre and 544 million bushels, below the 581 mb trade expectation. Durum production is forecast at 76.9 mb with an average yield of 38.1 bu/acre. 2024/25 US ending stocks are anticipated at 828 million bushels, 28 mb lower than the July report. 2024/25 world production increased 2.09 MMT from last month at 798.28 MMT. Global ending stocks were projected at 256.62 MMT, down 0.62 MMT. Russian production is estimated at 83.0 MMT and European Union at 128.0 MMT.
The weekly US Drought Monitor showed spring wheat area under drought increasing 2% to 18%. Durum area under drought increased 3% to 28% and winter wheat area increased 8% to 40%. The 6 to 10 day outlook shows a warmer and wetter outlook for the northern plains. The Pacific Northwest is called cooler and wetter.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.