Progressive Ag Marketing Report with Lilja
There’s an old saying that you become friends with the people that your kids become friends with. It is a true statement. It’s a lot of fun doing the backyard barbeques, swapping tickets to Bison games, letting the kids get their first driving experiences on golf carts and their first experiences fishing and hunting. Those friends have been peer pressuring me to get one of those side by sides to join them on the backroads but upon looking at the prices it’s been a big fat no. In typical Tom fashion I may have figured out an alternative. After scrolling the internet, I found me a mid-1980’s model Dodge Dakota with low miles that had been kept inside most of the time. With no rust and new tires, I’ll be able to join my buddies on their backroad summer treks for a fraction of the cost. I’ve also got the advantage of having a heater and air conditioning. I asked my daughter if I should turn it into a tailgating truck for Bison games and paint the gray to green and yellow. She gave dad a resounding “No”! After that response, I asked her for a Minnesota Twins TC logo for Christmas to put on the back window for summer cruising. I think her and mom will come through on that one. Maybe I should have asked for a blue or red seat cover. Merry Christmas!
The grains are locked into rangebound trade this time of year. Corn futures are specifically getting into the $4.90 range and are experiencing selling but are experiencing buying when prices get into the $4.70 range. Wheat futures experienced choppy back and forth trade this week with days of big losses followed by days of big gains. Technical traders remain buying at support levels and selling as prices near the 50-day and 100-day moving averages. The good news is world tender activity is very active with multiple countries seeking tenders. The bad news is Russian prices remain the lowest on the world stage. Russian wheat prices are estimated at $120.00/MT or $3.30 per bushel for 12.0-12.5% protein. Russia did implement a ban on durum exports which had been hinted to. This will run through June, but Russia exported 12 times as much durum as it did the prior year through midNovember.
Weekly wheat export sales were within expectations at 54.8 million bushels for 2023-24 and 0.7 mb for 2024-25. This takes into account the 1.12 MMT of soft red wheat sales to China last week and was the largest single week of wheat sales since September of 2007. Commitments total 534 million bushels and are running -3% below last year. Algeria purchased a large 930,000 MT tender split between France and the
Black Sea Region. Black Sea Region prices were $4.00/MT lower than 3 weeks ago. Japan purchased 102,000 MT of US and Canadian wheat. Saudi Arabia is seeking a 715,000 MT tender of wheat for the February – May timeframe.
Argentina has decided to devalue its currency by 50%. There are analysts stating that Argentine wheat production could increase by over 60% if the currency is devalued and if export taxes are removed. These were two pledges of new President Milei. The Rosario Grain Exchange raised their 2023/24 Argentine wheat forecast by 1.0 MMT to 14.5 MMT with harvest 57% complete.
China reported a record corn crop in the 2023/2024 growing season, totaling 11.37 bbu. That is a 4% percent increase in their nation’s corn production year over year. China is the second largest producer of corn in the world behind the United States.
The mild winter continues with 6 to 10 day outlooks showing much above normal temperatures for a vast majority of the United States with better precipitation chances for the Midwest and US Southeast. The 8 to 14 day outlook is similar but with drier conditions for the southern plains.
Progressive Ag Marketing, Inc. and is, or is in the nature of, a solicitation. This material is not a research report prepared by Progressive Ag Marketing’s Research Department.
Tom Lilja is an employee of Progressive who writes this column for the Times-Record.