Incursion a shock to Russian forces
Moscow forced into strategic decisions
Ukraine’s shock incursion across the Russian border into Kursk Oblast may force important strategic decisions on Moscow as President Vladimir Putin’s troops are taken as prisoners of war and supply lines are threatened. The Ukrainian attack took Russian forces by surprise, according to one U.S. official who was not authorized to speak publicly.
According to the Institute for the Study of War, Ukraine’s cross-border gambit allowed Kyiv to seize the battlefield initiative, long held by Russian forces who were able to dictate the time and place of fighting and force Ukrainian troops to expend manpower and equipment on defensive operations.
“It’s been a very real success,” former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, now a senior director at the Atlantic Council, told USA TODAY. “The latest data, not confirmed, says they’ve taken as much as 750 square kilometers (289.5 square miles) and may have gone as far as 35 kilometers (21.75 miles) from the border.”
The war institute says Putin may have incorrectly assessed that Ukraine did not have the capacity for such an attack − and that Russia’s treatment of the international border as a dormant front line represents a strategic failure.
Seth Jones, director of the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies told USA TODAY that the attack was a “huge psychological success and morale success for the Ukrainians because it puts the Russians on their back foot. It surprised the Russian military. It makes them look incompetent for not protecting their border, and I think it’s a huge morale boost to a Ukraine that’s really needed something recently, even though it’s had successes in the Black Sea, including against the Russian Navy and in Crimea.”
“The tables have been turned, at least slightly and at least temporarily, with the Ukrainian incursion,” said Jones, “This is a Ukrainian offensive operation. It looks very different from those we saw in 2023 or 2022, which were trying to retake territory that the Russians had seized in Ukraine. This is moving into Russian territory, which I think took the Russians by surprise. This was a real surprise attack.”
The push into Kursk may force Russia into a decision to treat the border as a front rather than a dormant area, with implications for Moscow’s deployment of personnel and materiel within Ukraine. The war study institute reports that Russian defensive forces appear to be hastily assembled and may be below intended strength and that Russian conscripts stationed in Kursk were unable to retreat and return to their units. The capture or death of conscripts poses a political risk to Putin because he would need to explain the casualties to the Russian public, according to the war study institute.
“It’s almost certain that the Russians are reconsidering force deployments, but reconsidering is not the same as deciding to change those deployments in a major way,” Herbst said.
“Russia, politically, can’t afford to let this happen again,” said Jones.
A video posted online showed a “heavily damaged” Russian convoy in Kursk filmed early Friday, according to BBC Verify. The uploader was later arrested by Russian authorities.
Herbst said that “Russian efforts to stop (Ukrainian forces) have so far been at best fruitless and at worst disastrous. The destruction of that armor column a few days ago was a disaster. There are still not enough Russian forces to stop clearly this offensive.” But Herbst cautioned that more Russian personnel and equipment may be headed to the area and may be able to resist Ukrainian forces.
Reuters reports that Russian tanks, artillery and rocket systems were moved to the southern Kursk region as Moscow “imposed anti-terrorism measures”.
The operation could present a real problem for Putin according to Herbst, who suggests the Russian leader may be downplaying the severity of the incursion by declaring a counterterrorism operation. “A counterterrorism operation is not the same as a war where you have opposing troops on your soil, which of course is what you have here.”
The incursion comes as prominent Russian oligarchs are speaking out against the war in Ukraine. In an interview with Nikkei Asia, Oleg Deripaska, a billionaire metal magnate with close ties to Putin, called the war “mad” and criticized Russia’s defense spending. “If you want to stop the war, first you need to stop the fire,” he said, calling for an “immediate, unconditional cease-fire” in Ukraine.
Deripaska “does not seem to be a candidate for defenestration, so watching what happens to him and watching to see if there will be other voices like that could be an indication of things coming apart in Moscow,” said Herbst, referring to a long string of suspicious deaths of Kremlin critics.
According to The Institute for the Study of War, the Kremlin released a half-hour video of Putin reprimanding federal and regional officials with the apparent intention of sending a message to officials to refrain from commenting on Ukraine’s Kursk incursion.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy acknowledged the operation in a post Saturday to X, formerly Twitter, describing a push to drive the war into “the aggressor’s territory.” Zelenskyy thanked international partners for implementing sanctions against Russia and the United States for new defense aid, including Stinger missiles, HIMARS mobile artillery ammunition and 155mm artillery shells.
Beyond Kursk, Jones said Russia’s main effort for offensive operations has been Eastern Ukraine. “It’s been primarily to increase control of areas. We’ve seen a big push in Luhansk Oblast,” said Jones, “The challenge has been they haven’t been able to take areas quickly and they haven’t been able to take advantage of changes in strategy. So they’re taking huge casualties when they do it.”