90% chance a depression forms this week
Tropical disturbance comes days after Debby
A tropical disturbance in the Atlantic Ocean could soon turn into a tropical depression, meteorologists said Sunday.
Just days after Hurricane Debby inundated the Carolinas and much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast with flooding and strong winds, there’s a 70% chance the unnamed rainstorm in the Atlantic could morph into a depression in the next 48 hours, forecasters said.
The tropical disturbance, or tropical wave, appears to be getting more organized because of a lack of wind shear, or winds blowing in different directions, meteorologists said.
“That will allow for there to be additional, gradual formation,” Zack Taylor, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service, told USA TODAY on Sunday.
It’s possible the tropical disturbance could transform into a tropical depression as soon as “later” on Sunday, Taylor said. But it’s more likely to happen early this week, he said.
Over the next seven days, there’s a 90% chance the storm will evolve into a tropical depression, the National Hurricane Center said Sunday.
If the system east of the Caribbean turns into a tropical depression, characterized by wind speeds up to 38 mph, it could next become a tropical storm, defined by wind speeds of 39 to 73 mph.
After that, the storm, which would be named Ernesto, could be on track to strengthen into a hurricane.
Right now, other factors contributing to the storm’s strengthening include less dry air, according to AccuWeather.
“Prior to Sunday, this system is unlikely to organize into a tropical storm, but as it approaches the Leeward Islands early this week, it could be a vastly different story,” AccuWeather Meteorologist Alyssa Glenny said.
Tropical disturbance part of a likely above-average storm season
The high likelihood of tropical depression formation comes just days after scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the chance of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season has increased to 90%.
The updated seasonal outlook from NOAA calls for 17 to 24 named storms to form, of which eight to 13 will spin up into hurricanes. (An average year sees 14 named storms, of which seven are hurricanes).
Those numbers include the four storms that have already formed this year, including deadly and devastating Hurricane Beryl and the current system menacing the East Coast, Tropical Storm Debby.
Federal forecasters said Beryl kicked off the hurricane season with an “early and violent start” when it became the earliest Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record on July 1.
Storm trackers at Colorado State University also recently updated their hurricane season forecasts, predicting a total of 23 named storms. Of those, CSU scientists predict 12 hurricanes and six major hurricanes.
Where is the tropical disturbance headed?
As of Sunday, the tropical disturbance was moving westward toward the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, Taylor said. Residents of those islands should “continue to monitor” the rainstorm’s whereabouts, he said.
Beyond the middle of this week, meteorologists can’t predict the storm’s exact track − such as whether it will head toward the southeastern U.S. or the northeast coast, Taylor said.
“A lot depends on exactly how the storm forms,” Taylor said, adding there’s also a chance the storm system could move away from the U.S.