Callahan: What tricks does Bill Belichick have left for Patrick Mahomes?
You are excused if you don’t remember the Patriots’ last matchup with the Chiefs.
The year was 2020. The game got delayed a day. Thanks to a rash of positive COVID-19 tests, the Patriots had to fly to Kansas City, play, and fly home all on the same day.
And all Pats defensive back Myles Bryant can recall about the game is, well, just that.
“I don’t even remember practicing,” Bryant told the Herald. “Just the COVID outbreak, and I think the game was a Monday? That’s all I remember.”
Yes, Myles, it was a Monday.
But for most of that 2610 loss, it wasn’t the travelworn Patriots who played like they had a case of the Mondays. It was the Chiefs.
Bill Belichick’s defense boxed out Patrick Mahomes and Co. most of the night, yielding just two field goals until the final minute of the third quarter. Kansas City finished with 19 offensive points, the second-fewest it had scored to date in the Mahomes era. For the fourth straight meeting, Belichick allowed fewer points to Mahomes than he did in their previous matchup.
Was it a sign of Belichick’s grip strengthening on an all-time great? If so, could that lead to a Patriots upset when they reunite Sunday?
Let’s slow down. An upset is not outside the realm of possibility, but the Pats will be shackled to the same ball and chain that slowed them three years ago in Kansas City: a backup quarterback. Back then, it was a combination of Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham. On Sunday, Bailey Zappe will be the backup driving the bus.
The best thing Zappe can do is park, hand the ball off against a bottom-5 run defense, and get out of the way. After that? Watch a defensive maestro work.
If Belichick dusts off that 2020 tape, he’ll recall flooding the field with coverage. The Patriots dropped eight defenders into coverage on an unprecedented 44% of Mahomes dropbacks, while blitzing just twice. (For reference, the Patriots dropped eight at a 16% clip the season before, while Detroit led the entire league at 27%.)
When they dropped eight, the Pats played mostly man-to-man coverage with two safeties deep
and another hovering over the short middle. Belichick occasionally inverted that structure, deploying two defenders in short zone and one deep. Short zone defenders hunted crossing routes, looking to disrupt the timing of Kansas City’s yards-after-catch passing game.
Belichick emphasized this tactic inside the red zone and on third down when Mahomes exclusively saw eight-man coverage. He went 3-of-10 converting on third down, moving the chains on a scramble, penalty, and an early completion to Tyreek Hill.
Since Hill left, Mahomes’
top target has become future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce. Considering Kelce is surrounded by blah pass-catchers — only one Chiefs wide receiver has more than 25 catches — it may behoove the Pats to again major in man-toman. Mahomes’ numbers versus man this season are also encouraging, with his completion percentage below 60% and his passer rating down from 93.3 on the season to 84.5.
If the Patriots lean manheavy again Sunday, covering Kelce should fall to safeties Kyle Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, and Jalen Mills. Mills offers the best coverage skill set among that group, but would surrender more size to the 6-foot5, 250-pound Kelce than either Dugger (6-2, 222) or Peppers (5-11, 217). Peppers also plays best when crashing the box or patrolling the deep middle as a free safety, not 1-on-1 in coverage.
So, that leaves Dugger, who shared the Patriots’ scout team has done well simulating Kelce through two practices this week.
“I think they’ve been doing a good job just really trying to uncover once the quarterback gets out of the pocket and going into space,” Dugger said.
The trouble with Kelce is his unpredictability. The 34-year-old will cut off routes if he senses he’s about to run into more coverage and stop, at which point Mahomes often finds him for a first down or more. Their synergy when freelancing is unparalleled in today’s league, and can render defending and game-planning for the Chiefs’ set plays somewhat useless.
“Even if you’re in good position, (Kelce) has the freedom to stop or maybe turn around and go a different way,” Dugger said. “It makes it harder.”
Still, that unpredictability can cut both ways. Belichick’s plans for Mahomes have often been rooted in man-to-man schemes, but he’s also uncorked wild disguises. In 2020, he rotated most every defensive back into different alignments and assignments from drive to drive to disorient Mahomes. Even Stephon Gilmore, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year, once dropped down the middle of the field in a zone space typically occupied by linebackers.
Belichick’s results speak for themselves: allowing 40, 38, 23, and then 19 offensive points in their headto-head meetings. The Chiefs are no longer as explosive as they once were — averaging 22.5 points per game and 19 over the last four weeks — but Patriots defenders see a familiar cast and scheme within their operation.
“A lot of the same people are there, so there definitely might be some similarities between what they did (in 2020) and what they’ll try to do now,” Dugger said.
If the same holds true for the Patriots, a repeat Belichick masterpiece should be in store.
If not, prepare for a new plan and maybe a game not so easily forgotten.