Sluggish economic growth projected in 2024 by DBEDT
KAHULUI—The Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism (DBEDT) released its second quarter 2024 Statistical and Economic Report today. In the report, DBEDT revised its economic growth projections for 2024, as measured by the growth of real gross domestic product (GDP), downward from 1.5% projected in the previous quarter, to 1.3 percent. Projections for 2025-2027 remain at about 2.0% economic growth which is similar to the average annual growth rate during the 2009-2019 period.
The forecast for slower economic growth in 2024 is due to several factors including decreased air visitor arrivals and expenditures, higher-than-expected inflation, declines in the civilian labor force, and slower job growth. During the first four months of 2024, total visitors to Hawai‘i declined by 3.9% compared to the same period in 2023. Statewide total visitor expenditures declined by 5.1% during the same period.
The state general excise tax (GET) revenue, which is a comprehensive measure of economic activity, decreased by 6.3% in April 2024 compared to April 2023. GET month-overmonth revenue last decreased in August 2023. The Honolulu Consumer Price Index, a measure of consumer inflation for O‘ahu, increased 3.9% in January 2024 over January 2023, and 4.8% in March 2024 compared to March 2023. As a comparison, the U.S. consumer inflation in March 2024 was at 3.5%.
Construction remains a bright spot for the economy. In April 2024, construction added 3,300 jobs (not seasonally adjusted) compared to the same month in 2023. The construction industry is currently at a record high of 41,400 workers (not seasonally adjusted) statewide. Hawai‘i’s statewide unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) for April 2024 was 2.8%, lower than the U.S. unemployment rate (not seasonally adjusted) of 3.5%.