SC could play an outsized role in Trump or Harris win
Now that the political conventions are over,
South Carolina has officially been rendered irrelevant to the national political press.
That doesn’t mean the state won’t have an outsized effect on what has become a Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris election. Though the Palmetto State won’t be generating many national political headlines between now and November, a slave-era political relic gives it more political power than its size suggests it should.
The state began this election cycle with two high-profile presidential candidates, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott and former S.C. Gov. Nikki Haley. Scott quickly became an afterthought. He got no traction during debates or in GOP primary polls, and seemingly got no serious consideration to become Trump’s running mate.
Haley at times sounded like a grown-up on issues such as abortion access and performed better than many expected, often receiving double-digit percentages of the GOP primary vote, but she couldn’t topple the former president. The results proved once again the
GOP is Trump’s for as long as he wants it.
With the attempted assassination of Trump and the unprecedented exit from the race by President Joe Biden dominating headlines, the Republican primary — when South Carolina was still relevant — seems so long ago. The state’s limited involvement between now and Election Day will be through S.C. Democratic officials such as Jaime Harrison and Rep. James Clyburn helping Harris or candidates in other states. It will also likely include Haley, Scott and S.C. Sen. Lindsey Graham going on the Fox News to beg Trump to become a more disciplined nominee.
The rallies, press conferences and national media attention will go to North Carolina and Georgia.
North Carolina went blue in 2008 and may again, while
Georgia has two Democratic senators and Biden won there in 2020. Their status as swing states guarantees millions of dollars will continue to pour in.
South Carolina stopped electing Democrats statewide when I was a teenager. The only way the state sees significant national action over the next couple of months is if Harris’ or Trump’s caravans take a wrong turn and accidentally end up in the Palmetto State on their way to visit our neighbors.
That reality is a shame, but it was utterly predictable. The United States unwisely elects its president in a way no other democracy does. Instead of by popular vote — you, know, the person who convinces the most people to vote for them wins — the presidency is decided by the Electoral College.
South Carolina’s nine Electoral College votes have all but been pocketed by Trump, just as New York’s 28 will go to Harris. That system means liberals in dark red states and conservatives in dark blue ones will be casting what feel like empty presidential votes that don’t matter. In North Carolina, liberals and conservatives are still being courted by Harris and Trump.
Though South Carolina won’t be generating many national political headlines the rest of this year, its nine Electoral College votes will play an outsized role in the election. The state is tiny compared to New York and California, but it still helps give the GOP a structural Electoral College advantage because “small states get proportionally more electors,” according to the Brookings Institute. South Carolinians won’t get to see Harris and Trump up close the rest of the way, but know the state has already made its mark on this election.
Modern Democratic presidential candidates have had to win the popular vote by a few percentage points to gain a victory in the Electoral College. Hillary Clinton and Al
Gore didn’t become president even after winning more of the popular vote than their GOP opponents. That could happen again in November.
What’s frustrating is that this system, which largely began as a way to give slave-holding states power they should not have had, could mean minority rule becomes more probable as the nation diversifies.
It’s an insane, undemocratic way to elect the most powerful person on the planet. That’s why it’s easy to imagine Republican South Carolinians are likely content. Though the state might not get the national headlines, it still gets to flex its electoral muscle without them.