The Indianapolis Star

Boilermake­rs’ best- and worst-case scenarios for 2024

INDIANAPOL­IS — All of the elements for Purdue football to emerge as the surprise story of the Big Ten remain on the table.

When the transfer portal created roster holes, Ryan Walters reached back in and found solutions. Those new Day 1 starters can complement the NFL prospects already in developmen­t. If all of that comes together on the right day, even national powers carry exploitabl­e vulnerabil­ities.

Put it this way: If this Boilermake­rs team played last season's schedule, people might be talking about them they way they're talking about Rutgers right now.

Instead, across the board 18th out of 18 prediction­s slapped them in the face. If a stabilized offensive line and additional receiver talent do not invigorate the offense, and if a disruptive defense remains too leaky in crucial situations, Purdue risks living down to those expectatio­ns.

Best case

At first glance, those four top-10 matchups and road trip to Wisconsin seem like a big roadblock to a breakthrou­gh season. The opposite could also be true. Oregon must come to West Lafayette on a short week immediatel­y after playing one of the most anticipate­d games of the season against Ohio State. That trip to Camp Randall comes after the Badgers play Alabama and at USC in their previous two games. Maybe Penn State's offense continues to lag far behind its defense.

Or maybe key starters return against Notre Dame and take the wind out of the wildly optimistic preseason prediction­s for the Fighting Irish. Regardless, the Boilermake­rs pull at least one stunner from either that quartet of perceived playoff contenders or an end to the 17game losing streak against Wisconsin. Similar to Jeff Brohm in 2018, Ryan Walters

secures a signature win upon which he can continue to build.

In the other half of the season, the marginal improvemen­ts since last season produce maximum results. Dillon Thieneman continues to play like an AllAmerica­n and Nyland Green injects skill and aggression into the cornerback­s. The vastly improved secondary performanc­e both chokes off explosive plays — last season's biggest issue — and helps the pass rush recreate last season's impact in the aggregate. On offense, the best five-man offensive line emerges and remains healthy. Defense must respect another effective Devin Mockabee's new backfield tandem with Reggie Love III. Both of those factors allow Hudson Card to come into his own with Jahmal Edrine and the rest of an improved batch of receivers.

Purdue wins eight games. Walters gains national attention for that secondyear turnaround in adverse conditions. Then he takes the most satisfying condiment bath of all time after a Duke's Mayo Bowl victory over Brohm and Louisville.

Worst case

This schedule is challengin­g enough that the floor will be decided not by Purdue's

final record, but how it gets there.

No danger of losing to Indiana State. But Notre Dame comes to Ross-Ade two weeks later and wins in a romp. That's a precursor to the tougher half of the schedule in which the Boilermake­rs never really challenge into the second half. The improved defense still gets boat raced by Ohio State and Oregon. Wisconsin's Tyler Van Dyke looks like a Heisman Contender while pushing the winning streak in that series to 18 games. Penn State scores more touchdowns than its defense allows first downs.

The true downside, though, shows through in the other games. Despite improving the collective talent on the defense, big plays capsize a potential home win over Nebraska. The offense does not travel to Oregon State. Penalties and turnovers give away a game at Illinois.

Finally, Indiana lives up to Curt Cignetti's confidence preseason pronunciat­ions and is bowl eligible even before a comfortabl­e victory in the Old Oaken Bucket game. Purdue finishes 3-9, but worse than a regression in record, it shows a regression in performanc­e.