New York Post

Let’s make moolah with Muhammad

The main card for UFC 304 kicks off in Manchester, England, on Saturday with five bouts, including a title fight between Leon Edwards and Belal Muhammad.

Edwards and Muhammad will knuckle up to determine whether Edwards can defend his welterweig­ht belt for a third consecutiv­e time after successful­ly beating Kamaru Usman and Colby Covington.

In the lightweigh­t division, the newly branded King Green will take on one of the UFC’s rising stars, Paddy Pimblett. “The Baddy” has logged seven consecutiv­e wins, including a unanimous decision over Tony Ferguson, one of the most accomplish­ed lightweigh­t fighters.

Let’s analyze and make prediction­s for both bouts:

Edwards vs. Muhammad

The two battled in 2021, when an incidental eye poke from Edwards resulted in a no-contest. Muhammad was in substantia­l pain and visibly upset that his long-awaited opportunit­y had ended prematurel­y.

Edwards was ahead in that bout before the eye poke, as Muhammad was not unleashing his usual strategy of pressuring opponents with his unique feints and punching combinatio­ns.

Edwards landed a big head kick and some impressive counterstr­ikes, so Muhammad must approach this fight differentl­y. Muhammad has strung together a fivefight winning streak, including decisions against sixth-ranked Gilbert Burns, eighth-ranked Sean Brady and ninthranke­d Stephen Thompson.

Neither Edwards nor Muhammad has elite knockout power, with each logging just one knockout or TKO in their past eight fights. This bout likely will go the distance, so it will be up to which fighter scores more points.

Despite a slow start for Muhammad in his last fight against Edwards, he has a huge statistica­l advantage in significan­t strikes landed per minute, which could be a kryptonite for a fighter such as Edwards, who enjoys disengagin­g, picking his spots and controllin­g fights with a slower pace.

Further, Muhammad knows now that fighting at a slower pace is much more advantageo­us to Edwards, so he should push the pace on him. In that environmen­t, Muhammad has value at +220, which implies a win probabilit­y of just 31.25 percent.

Green vs. Pimblett

Green’s past two fights were not necessaril­y inspiring. He beat 40-year-old Jim Miller by unanimous decision and was knocked out in the first round by lightweigh­t Jalin Turner, who is currently ranked 13th.

Still, Green is one of the most experience­d fighters in the UFC and has a proven record of halting young, surging fighters in their tracks, evidenced by his first-round knockout of Grant Dawson, who was 20-1-1 entering the bout. Meanwhile, Pimblett recorded his first significan­t win over Ferguson. Neverthele­ss, Ferguson has been declining for several years, losing seven consecutiv­e fights after dropping a bout to Pimblett. This will be one of the first true UFC tests for Pimblett.

Despite being 5-0 in the UFC, Pimblett was gifted a win against Jared Gordon, and three of his other four wins were against unranked and largely unknown fighters. Additional­ly, Ferguson’s steep decline in the past few years makes Pimblett’s win over him mean slightly less. Green has a substantia­l experience advantage, fighting some alltime greats throughout his long career. Furthermor­e, his 6.45 significan­t strikes landed per minute relative to his 3.75 significan­t strikes absorbed per minute tells us a convincing story: Green is a much better boxer than Pimblett and won’t have to worry about Pimblett’s ground game because of his strong takedown defense. This fight will help Pimblett in the long run, but he unlikely will come away with a win, even if it is in front of a home crowd. Recommenda­tions: Belal Muhammad moneyline (+220, BetMGM); King Green moneyline (-115, BetMGM). Andrew Norton analyzes UFC for Action Network.