Hamilin a good Brick' pick
It’s one of NASCAR’s crown jewel events this weekend with the Brickyard 400. The Cup Series runs on the oval layout at Indianapolis Motor Speedway for the first time since 2020.
Four years ago, Kevin Harvick captured his third career victory at Indianapolis. It’s a much different field in 2024, as Brad Keselowski is the only top-five finisher from the 2020 race in this year’s field.
BetMGM has Denny Hamlin (+375) and Kyle Larson (+575) as the favorites. Last week’s winner Ryan Blaney (+800) and 2018 Brickyard 400 winner Brad Keselowski (+850) are the only other drivers with odds shorter than 10/1.
It’s the final race before a two-week break for the Olympics. Here are our best bets for one of NASCAR’s marquee events.
Denny Hamlin to win (+490, FanDuel)
My top pick last week, Hamlin came agonizingly close with a second-place finish. I’m going back to the well as Hamlin pursues his first win at Indianapolis.
He had the car to beat in the 2020 race, holding the lead with under 10 laps to go. Unfortunately, he suffered a flat tire and crashed while leading.
Despite the result, Hamlin has finished sixth or better in five of his past seven races at Indy. He’s also the best driver at Pocono, which represents the closest comparison to Indianapolis.
There aren’t many tracks Hamlin has yet to win at in the Cup Series. There’s a good chance he will check Indianapolis off the list on Sunday.
Kyle Larson top-five finish (+100, bet365)
Larson enters Sunday’s race looking for a bounce-back effort. He’s had speed the past two weeks, but a crash and pit road penalty have led to poor finishes. He should be in line for a strong run at Indy.
This will be Larson’s first start at Indianapolis with Hendrick Motorsports. He showed speed in lesser equipment, posting three top-10 finishes from 2014-16.
Larson had one of the cars to beat in the 2019 race. He finished second in both stages before crashing. He also displayed top-10 speed in the 2017 and 2018 races.
Speed isn’t the issue for Larson, as the No. 5 team is consistently in contention. A top-five finish is well within reach as long as he and his crew can avoid mistakes.
Ross Chastain over Kyle Busch (-115, bet365)
The Indianapolis history gives Busch a massive edge over Chastain, who has never finished better than 17th, while Busch has two wins and five top-five finishes. However, this pick is all about 2024.
Busch is in the worst stretch of his career, having finished 27th or worse in six of his past nine races. The team lacks speed, and Busch keeps finding a way to crash.
Chastain hasn’t been great lately, crashing in two of his past three races. Still, he’s showing much more speed than Busch.
It’s a good idea to fade Busch amid his current stretch. It likely won’t take a great finish for Chastain to cash this bet.
Nick Sterling analyzes NASCAR for Action Network.