Score with Noren at Canadian Open
The RBC Canadian Open changes venues each year, so we have little course history to work with this week.
The event has been held at Hamilton Golf & Country Club only two times over the last 15 years — in 2019 when Rory McIlroy won and in 2012 when Scott Piercy came out on top.
The course has gone through major renovations since Piercy’s victory more than a decade ago. It has been lengthened by 118 yards, all 18 greens were redone, trees were removed and the bunkers rebuilt.
In other words, you can ignore all course history when making your picks this week.
The course is a par-70 that measures 7,084 yards — a short course compared to PGA Tour standards. While there are only two par-5s, we can expect favorable scoring conditions.
With thick rough, narrow fairways and only a few long holes, accuracy should be more important than distance off the tee. The greens are average in size and feature bentgrass.
I’m not putting a strong emphasis on course fit this week. For one, we don’t know how it will truly play given the renovations, and the course is short enough that any type of golfer should be able to contend. Instead, I will be focusing more on recent form.
Here are three best bets to win the RBC Canadian Open:
Alex Noren (25/1, BetMGM)
Noren is easily having his most consistent season. Since the start of October, he has made 17 straight cuts, and since the start of March, he has eight straight top-25 finishes. More importantly, he has consistently gained strokes in all four of the main categories (off the tee, approach, around the green and putting).
He’s still searching for his first win on the PGA Tour, but with 11 professional victories, he certainly knows how to win, and his game is trending in the right direction.
This is a fair number given how weak the field is. Because of his consistency, I will be adding a top-20 bet on him as well at +145.
Maverick McNealy (35/1, bet365)
McNealy missed time last year with an injury but is back and playing some great golf. He has made 11 straight cuts on the PGA Tour and has posted three top-20 finishes during that stretch.
He has a very consistent stat profile; he is good off the tee and is an excellent scrambler and putter. The approach play is what has held him back from truly contending in an event this year, but something seems to have clicked on that front.
After losing strokes on approach in seven of his first eight events this year, he has gained at least 1.6 strokes on approach in three of his last four events. If that continues, I like his chances of contending.
Adam Scott (40/1, bet365)
I have consistently bet on Scott this year and hope that loyalty will be rewarded soon.
He had a nice stretch on the DP World Tour in the fall and already has eight top-30 finishes in 11 PGA Tour starts in 2024. The problem (at least for me) is that he hasn’t been able to find his way back into the winner’s circle.
The underlying statistics are promising, as he’s shown an ability to gain strokes in all facets of his game. He tends to play his best on classical courses, and Hamilton seems to fit that mold.
He has won all over the world (31 total wins, 14 PGA Tour wins), so maybe he can add another trophy to his mantle this week. He’s certainly more appealing than those priced around him in the market.