Mixed bag for Giants & Jets
The NFL released its full 2024 schedule on Wednesday night, which means it’s officially time to start getting excited about the upcoming season.
We’ll get a good look at the Giants as HBO documents their offseason in a new iteration of “Hard Knocks.” The Jets, on the other hand, won’t need any extra publicity to build excitement for a season of high expectations.
The two teams’ 2024 outlooks couldn’t be much more different. Let’s take a look at their projected win totals at BetMGM and make a betting recommendation for each.
Giants Under 6.5 wins (-130]
The Giants finished last season 6-11, which was a significant disappointment one year after they went 9-7-1 and made the playoffs in the first season under Brian Daboll. Daniel Jones played in only six games as he suffered his second neck injury in three years before tearing his ACL.
The Giants’ concerns over Jones’ durability had many expecting them to draft a quarterback in the first round this year. Instead, they landed Malik Nabers, an explosive wide receiver out of LSU. Daboll is a master of scheming the ball into his players’ hands in space, and Nabers has a tremendous ability to create after the catch.
The Giants need to see improvement from their offensive line after ranking in the bottom three in PFF’s pass- and runblock grades last season. They’ll also hope their run defense, ranked 29th in EPA, can improve in the first year under DC Shane Bowen.
The Giants will play two games on short rest, including Thanksgiving against Dallas, and they travel to Germany on Nov. 10 to play the Panthers. They already had the 13th-most difficult slate (based on projected win totals), and this won’t make it any easier.
It’s tough to get excited about this Giants roster with several holes. Factor in concerns over Jones’ durability, and Under 6.5 wins seems likely.
Jets Over 9.5 wins (-120)
The start to Aaron Rodgers’ career with the Jets lasted four snaps before he suffered a season-ending Achilles injury. Still, he’s expected to regain full health before training camp opens.
The Jets haven’t had quality quarterback play in years, and Zach Wilson ranked 40th out of 41 qualified passers in adjusted EPA/play last season. Even if Rodgers isn’t pushing for MVP honors, he stands to be a tremendous upgrade.
The Jets invested heavily in their offensive line this offseason, bringing in veteran tackles Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith, and guard John Simpson. They also spent their first-round pick on Penn State OT Olu Fashanu.
Wide receiver Garrett Wilson and running back Breece Hall have significant upside and could break out in full force in a Rodgers offense.
The Jets’ defense finished last season ranked third in EPA/play and should remain elite. The addition of Haason Reddick could pay dividends for an outstanding pass rush. Meanwhile, the special teams unit ranked fifth, per PFF.
While the Jets have the fourth-easiest projected schedule, the NFL did them no favors with the layout of their games, including a trip to London and a Week 1 road game against the defending NFC champs, the 49ers. When the NFL wants to showcase your team, there’s always a price to pay.
With that said, the Jets have a complete roster in all three phases and Rodgers should help elevate the play across the team. I’m taking the Over on their win total, and I’m also betting on them to win the AFC East.