Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 2 winners against the spread
The annual conversation coming out of Week 1 revolves around how much perception has shifted on teams as a result of them all playing one game apiece.
It usually devolves into anything from a cordial argument to a shouting match, but the betting market provides a scientific way to explore the phenomenon. Lines that move give the surest insight on what teams the public is both bullish and bearish on.
Three Week 2 point spreads rose above the rest this year, having shifted at least a field goal following the first set of games.
The Green Bay Packers saw the biggest decline in going from as high as a 4-point favorite over the Indianapolis Colts to a 3.5-point underdog, but that move involves extenuating circumstances. It’s more about the loss of quarterback Jordan Love to an MCL injury than an overall lack of confidence in Green Bay.
An injury similarly played into the second-largest move, as the Los Angeles Rams were as high as a 2.5-point favorite for a game at the Arizona Cardinals before losing receiver Puka Nacua to injured reserve. Now they’re as high as a 2-point underdog.
The point spread that therefore stands out the most is the Los Angeles Chargers laying 6.5 points at the Carolina Panthers. The Chargers were as low as a 3-point favorite before knocking off the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1 combined with the Panthers getting embarrassed by the New Orleans Saints.
Carolina was already rated as one of the worst teams in the NFL, but it now sits alone in the same spot it was throughout virtually the entire 2023 season — at the absolute bottom in terms of public consensus.
Read on for my interpretation of the changing opinions on all those teams and the rest in the league, with picks on every Week 2 game of the weekend. Picks are labeled in three separate confidence categories and listed in rough order of confidence. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
Plays (3-3-2) Los Angeles Rams +2 at Arizona Cardinals:
Nacua is an incredible talent, already one of the best receivers in the NFL when healthy, but should his absence be worth as much as 4.5 points? No way — not even when factoring in a couple other more minor Rams injuries. Los Angeles still has more than enough offensive firepower to find efficient ways to crack a shoddy Arizona defense.
Carolina Panthers +6.5 vs. Los Angeles Chargers:
Buying low isn’t supposed to be easy; it’s inherently uncomfortable. The Panthers might still be the worst team in the league but the Chargers’ offense looked just as lifeless for the majority of its Week 1 game. Los Angeles has a great coach in Jim Harbaugh, but a mediocre-at-best roster that should preclude it from ever laying a touchdown on the road.
New Orleans Saints +6.5 at Dallas Cowboys:
What if the Saints really have turned the corner and their 47-10 win against the Panthers as closing 3.5-point favorites was more than bullying a bad team? Typically, blowing out opponents — even bottom-of-the-league ones — is more predictive going forward than the masses realize. This becomes one of the stronger plays of the year so far if the Saints climb back up to +7.
Cincinnati Bengals +6 at Kansas City Chiefs:
In five games between these teams since the arrivals of Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes, the Bengals are 3-2 straight-up and against the spread, with the Chiefs having outscored them collectively 127-125 in the contests. Burrow may not have looked like himself in the Bengals’ season-opening 16-10 loss to the Patriots as 7.5-point favorites, but that’s only one data point that doesn’t overcome the larger one indicating this will be a close game.
New England Patriots +3.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks:
Seattle’s defense looked awfully impressive in dismantling Denver last week, but how much of it was new coach Mike Macdonald’s magic touch and how much of it was Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix not being ready to play? That’s to be determined despite a spread this long emphatically pointing toward the former theory.
Denver Broncos +3 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers:
I repeat: Buying low isn’t supposed to be easy; it’s inherently uncomfortable. The Broncos’ offense was lost in Week 1, but the Steelers’ attack wasn’t much better, with barely four yards per play and six field goals to beat the Falcons 18-10 as closing 4-point underdogs. Now Pittsburgh has to travel to elevation to play in a second straight road game, a spot where teams traditionally underperform.
Jacksonville Jaguars -3 vs. Cleveland Browns:
Cleveland quarterback Deshaun Watson’s contract is the worst in NFL history, and I’m confident that’s not a Week 1 overreaction. The controversial $230 million man has hindered more than helped Cleveland ever since arriving in 2022, and it’s not going to get any better against what appears to be an improved Jacksonville defense.
Leans (4-1-1) Detroit Lions -7 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
The Commanders’ defense might be historically poor so I’d hesitate to put too much confidence to the Buc’ high-flying ways in a 37-20 victory as closing 4-point favorites. Tampa Bay should encounter more resistance up against a rising Detroit defense starring Aidan Hutchinson, Pro Football Focus’ second-highest-graded edge rusher in the league behind Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt in Week 1.
Green Bay Packers +3.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts:
This is a direct test of my belief that Packers coach Matt Lafleur is one of the NFL’S better game-planners. He’s going to have to prove it to build a winning strategy with the limited Malik Willis in for Jordan Love. But Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson is no finished product either. His boom-or-bust style served Indianapolis pretty well in a 29-27 loss to Houston as 3-point underdogs in Week 1 but it’s not sustainable long term.
Houston Texans -6.5 vs. Chicago Bears:
Yes, it (somehow) won the game but Chicago averaged an Nfl-worst 2.8 yards per play in Week 1 against a mediocre Tennessee defense. The performance was another signal that the Bears aren’t yet the contender some are making them out to be behind No. 1 overall draft pick Caleb Williams at quarterback. The Texans, on the other hand, have a championship-caliber roster.
Las Vegas Raiders +10 at Baltimore Ravens:
If this game is going to be as low scoring as the market implies — the total has dropped from as high as over/under 44.5 points to 41.5 — then there’s not much room left for the Ravens to cover a double-digit spread. The Raiders’ defense wore out in a 22-10 Week 1 loss to the Chargers as 3-point underdogs but generally should be good enough to keep scores respectable.
Atlanta Falcons +6.5 at Philadelphia Eagles:
This number would need to touch +7 to entice me to get involved but Philadelphia appears to be getting too much credit for a 34-29 win against Green Bay as 2-point favorites in Brazil. The Packers outgained the Eagles by a significant 1.6 yards per play in the game. The Falcons, meanwhile, outgained the Steelers by 0.4 yards per play despite their loss.
Guesses (1-1) Tennessee Titans +3.5 vs. New York Jets:
New York’s coaching staff looked flummoxed and overwhelmed in a 32-19 Monday Night Football loss to San Francisco as 3.5-point underdogs. Tennessee should have an advantage on the sideline, as new coach Brian Callahan should have led his team to a victory against Chicago if not for his quarterback (Will Levis) self-imploding with a pair of interceptions.
Minnesota Vikings +6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers:
San Francisco again flexed its Nfl-best all-around roster on Monday Night Football. But secretly, Minnesota isn’t too far behind as far as having standouts at so many different positions. I made this number 49ers -6 so there’s no real value but one book (Boyd Sports) having the extra half-point makes the Vikings the near coin-flip pick.
Washington Commanders -1.5 vs. New York Giants:
The Commanders probably have the worst defense in the NFL, but the Giants might wind up with the worst offense in the NFL. In what should be a high-scoring affair — take over 43.5 even though there’s been two points of movement upward from the opening number — the team that can score easier should be the choice.