Analysts: Corporate profits may fall 5% under Harris
Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris’ proposed corporate tax hike could reduce S&P 500 company earnings by about 5%, with additional taxes potentially hitting profits harder, Goldman Sachs analysts said.
Last month, Vice President Harris outlined plans to raise the corporate tax rate to 28% from 21%, in order to ensure “big corporations pay their fair share.”
Goldman analysts said in a note late on Wednesday that at a 28% taxation rate, they estimate earnings of S&P 500 companies would take a 5% hit.
However, the brokerage has said earlier that the broader economy would get the biggest boost in the next two years if Democrats win the White House and Congress.
Economic output would take a hit next year under a Republican administration, mostly from increased import tariffs and tighter immigration policies, it has previously said.
On Wednesday, Harris said Trump’s plans would cut off federal programs that offer loans to small businesses, cut the corporate tax rate and push the U.S. deficit higher.
“The current U.S. statutory corporate tax rate on domestic income is 26%, but the total effective tax rate paid by the typical S&P 500 company is 19%,” the brokerage said.
“While each presidential candidate has proposed changes to the corporate tax code, changes are not a given,” analysts led by Ben Snider wrote in a note.
Polls showed that Trump had built a lead over Biden but Harris has since edged ahead of the Republican candidate in some national opinion polls.
Adding taxation on foreign income and an increase in the alternative minimum tax rate to 21% from 15% could reduce earnings by as much as 8% if Harris won, they said.
Trump’s proposed relief on the federal domestic corporate tax rate to 15% from the current 21% would “arithmetically” boost S&P 500 earnings by about 4%, they added.
For every projected 1 percentage point change in the U.S. statutory domestic tax rate, S&P 500 earnings per share would shift by about $2, according to the brokerage.