Daily Racing Form National Digital Edition
2024 Preakness Pace Projector
How does the Projector work?
The TimeformUS Pace Projector predicts how a race might unfold early. It displays the horses ranked by the TimeformUS Early Speed Rating – fastest in the front, slowest in the rear. The image shows where the horses are projected to be after the first half-mile of a route race. The front of the field is displayed to the right. It also attempts to determine if the pace of the race is likely to be fast, average, or slow for the field.
What is the Pace Projector saying about this particular race?
There is no flag for this race. This indicates the pace is not expected to favor any running style. A field of nine entered the Preakness on Monday. Two horses have a TimeformUS Running Style of “Speed” assigned, Muth (No. 4) and Imagination (No. 9). Both are trained by Bob Baffert, making a battle for the lead unlikely. There are two additional horses designated as “Tracker,” horses that press the pace and figure to apply pressure to the leader. D. Wayne Lukas trains that pair, Seize the Grey (No. 6) and Just Steel (No. 7).
Are there any quirks to this particular distance or surface or field size that the algorithm adjusts for?
The field size of nine is considered by the Pace Projector when assessing if the pace is likely to be fast, average, or slow. The number of horses is slightly above average and adds to the likelihood of a fast pace, but not enough in this race to enable the “Fast Pace” flag.
Based on a more nuanced, granular look at the past performances, from watching the races, knowing the jockeys and trainers tendencies, etc., which horses do you think are likely to show more or less early speed than in this Projector?
There isn’t much I would change about this one if I were making a Pace Projector manually. Perhaps Muth will be closer to the leader in a clear second with a clean break from the gate.
Does any horse stand out as exceptional on TimeformUS Late Pace Figures if the pace turns out to be hot?
The top Late Pace Figure in the field belongs to Catching Freedom (No. 3) with a 113.
There are three others with a figure over 100. Longshot Mugatu (No. 1) 108, Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan (No. 5) 103, and Tuscan Dan (No. 8).
How have recent editions of the Preakness developed from a pace standpoint?
The Preakness has had a solid to fast pace in nine consecutive editions of the race. Last year, National Treasure went wire to wire setting a solid but uncontested pace. Winning styles have been mixed. Along with last year’s winner, Justify and American Pharoah won on the lead. Early Voting, Cloud Computing, California Chrome, and Swiss Skydiver won from tracking positions. Rombauer scored from in the latter half of the field early, and Exaggerator roared from well back early to win.