NOR’EASTER JUST THE BEGINNING
‘Stronger’ storm could hit next week
Wondering what that clicking sound is? It’s everyone across the region hitting the refresh button on the latest storm forecasts ahead of the weekend.
The first winter storm of the season is expected to dump snow across Massachusetts from Saturday night into Sunday, according to meteorologists who continue to caution that a shift in the system’s track can change a lot.
The quick-moving nor’easter will likely drop 4 to 8 inches of snow on the Boston-area, AccuWeather Meteorologist Carl Erickson told the Herald yesterday.
“Snow should move into the Boston-area sometime Saturday night, and the heaviest should be late at night through the first half of Sunday,” Erickson said.
“Some light snow could linger Sunday afternoon before the system pulls away Sunday evening,” he added.
The highest amounts of snow accumulations are expected to be west of Interstate 495.
Southeastern Massachusetts and the Cape and Islands should see lower snow accumulations and rain mixing in.
“There should be a pretty sharp gradient across the area,” Erickson said.
The exact track and intensity of the storm is still being ironed out.
The speed of the system should limit the high-end snow potential.
“There’s more of a risk of having lower snow amounts if the storm tracks further south,” Erickson said.
National Weather Service meteorologists want to see the system come on shore out west — and get data from observations to improve forecast models — before giving out snowfall estimates.
“We’re keeping a close eye on it for now,” said Kyle Pederson, meteorologist at the National Weather Service’s Boston office. “Still in the wait-and-see mode.”
More than three days out, there’s major uncertainty on snow amounts, including the location of the rain/snow line, according to the National Weather Service.
The average model error at day 3 is more than 150 miles on the storm track.
“What we know at this time is that there will be enough moisture over the region to produce precipitation and there will be enough cold air to support snowfall for much of interior southern New England,” the NWS forecast discussion reads. “A plowable snow (34+ inches), looks to be likely for areas along and west of the I-95 corridor from Providence to Boston where ensemble probabilities of 24hour snowfall exceeding 3 inches are 50 to 60 percent.
“If we double that amount to 6 inches, probabilities come down to 30 to 40 percent, where the highest probs are generally across Worcester county and portions of western Middlesex county in MA,” NWS added.
The greatest area of uncertainty is east of I-495 where the storm track will dictate how cold the air gets and how much accumulating snow will be possible.
Then after the storm, another low-pressure system could produce substantial precipitation over southern New England during the middle of next week.
“There should be another stronger storm next week,” Erickson said. “Cold air will be in place late Tuesday night for a snow and wintry mix before moving to rain. It looks like a pretty significant system.”
Localized flooding will be possible with that intense band of precipitation.