Swinney must start to govern Scotland well
Ten years after independence referendum, SNP must learn hard lesson or face Sunak-style election disaster
On the tenth anniversary of the independence referendum, nationalists will doubtless be reflecting on what might have been. Had things gone differently or had the referendum been held two years later during the wave of populism that delivered Brexit and made Donald Trump US President, Scotland might now be marking its Independence Day.
“Marking” but not necessarily “celebrating”, given the resulting economic turmoil. However, while Scotland’s fortunes would almost certainly have been worse than they are today, few would suggest life has got much better over the last decade. External events, outwith the control of the Scottish and UK governments, such as Covid and the Ukraine War, caused big economic shocks, though neither Westminster nor Holyrood looks to have handled these crises very well.
Alex Salmond’s stock has fallen considerably in recent years, but when he was first minister he managed to convey the impression of reasonably competent government. He was also able to negotiate a referendum with a Conservative prime minister, David
Cameron. In contrast, Nicola Sturgeon and Humza Yousaf seemed to think it was to their political advantage to pick fights with Westminster and blame it for their failings. SNP ministers started to take their “eye off the ball” and ignore the basic requirements of their job. Unfinished ferries, the A9 dualling delay, legislation blocked by Westminster or shelved amid popular uproar, soaring NHS waiting lists, rising drug deaths... their multiple failures are stark and obvious.
As a result, despite support for independence remaining about the same as in 2014, the SNP has been haemorrhaging votes. Had their boasts about life being better in “progressive” Scotland been backed up by people’s everyday experiences, the party would not be facing a Holyrood election defeat – that could become every bit as historically disastrous as the one inflicted onr is hi sun ak’ s conservatives in July, if the SNP continues in much the same vein over the next two years.
For the sake of his cause, party and country, John Swinney must rediscover how to govern well or a disenchanted electorate will pass a harsh judgment.