False dawns?
Putin is reeling from the Ukrainian incursion into Russia, Biden is hopeful for a ceasefire agreement in Gaza and Kamala Harris is fighting toe to toe with Trump. Such optimism should be tempered by caution.
Putin continues to make gains in Ukraine, homing in on the strategically important city of Pokrovsk. Russian resources have not been diverted from crucial frontline positions as was hoped to stem the Ukrainian incursion in Kursk. While an embarrassment for Putin, ultimately it will have little strategic significance as the territory is tiny in comparison with that gained in the Donbas and Crimea. It does show, however, that Ukraine can advance further in 6 weeks than Russia has advanced in 6 months which will be a concern to Putin.
Without Hamas support for a ceasefire in Gaza, successful talks seem unlikely. Netanyahu knows that he can’t afford to stop Israeli violence against Hamas and innocent Palestinians or he will lose power to right wing radicals. Biden’s optimism can be explained by the fact that the alternative to a ceasefire will see Hezbollah enter the war in support of Hamas and a more serious Iranian strike on Israel than the damp squib back in April. The threat of a Middle Eastern conflict involving Iran hangs by a thread.
Kamala Harris continues to enjoy a honeymoon period with polls suggesting she is neck and neck with Trump. They also show she is behind in the crucial swing states of Nevada, Arizona and Georgia, all won by Biden in 2020. Harris needs to win at least one of these and maintain momentum until November. A tall order to achieve “a triumph of hope over experience”. We can but hope.
Neil Anderson
Edinburgh