The Herald

SNP supporters deserve much better

PITY the poor SNP support. It’s been a bad couple of seasons generally but recent poor performanc­e could mean humiliatin­g relegation awaits.

The thing is, it shouldn’t be like this. The SNP are in a difficult place, for sure, but they also have the opportunit­y for a fresh start. John Swinney became First Minister with the reputation of being a better politician than his predecesso­r. He had a decent public approval rating. He was the safe pair of hands. That man knows a thing or two about election campaigns, the party faithful must have thought. We can finally get on the front foot – so they believed.

Most importantl­y, the SNP, for all their many failures, have stuff on arch-rivals Labour. They have been mitigating Westminste­r benefits cuts like the bedroom tax, and introducin­g new benefits like the Scottish Child Payment, while Labour won’t commit to dumping the two-child limit. As a devolved government at one remove from responsibi­lity for Britain’s economy, the SNP have the luxury of being able to attack Labour’s fiscal conservati­sm. They can embarrass Labour over Brexit. They’ve taken a firmer position on Gaza. The party even has the veneer of uneasy unity, for now. These things give them a half-decent story to tell on the doorstep – or something to say that deflects attention away from a certain police inquiry, at any rate.

A reversal of fortunes is pretty much impossible to envisage, but you might expect the polls to narrow a bit as election day approaches. The trouble is, it all counts for nothing unless the SNP can throw off its air of entitlemen­t and decrepitud­e.

The loss of public support they’ve already experience­d calls for humility. But John Swinney’s defence of his good friend Michael Matheson has handed his opponents wounding attack lines by making him appear very much to be “looking after his mates”. The SNP sowed confusion about its position in the run-up to yesterday’s bad-tempered debate and vote on Mr Matheson, leading to jeers Mr Swinney had “U-turned on his U-turn”. Eventually SNP MSPS abstained on the vote and Mr Matheson was sanctioned, though MSPS also agreed the complaints process should be reviewed. It must have left even Humza Yousaf watching between his fingers.

How, one wonders, does the new SNP leader expect to lead his party to victory like this?

Professor James Mitchell, the respected authority on nationalis­t politics, is typically withering. He suggests that had veteran political adviser Kevin Pringle still had Mr Swinney’s ear (Pringle was not re-hired after Yousaf stood down), the First Minister wouldn’t have gone down this road. The not-very-flattering implicatio­n is that without a wiser hand to guide him, Mr Swinney is a bit of a liability to himself.

The SNP are now trying to regain the initiative, so what can they do?

The latest poll – the first since the election was announced – is dire for the nationalis­ts. In 2019, the SNP won 48 of Scotland’s 59 seats before losing three to defections, one in a by-election and one by expelling an MP (Angus Macneil). This latest poll suggests that the SNP could see their remaining 43 seats drop to 16, while Labour would go up from two

to 28 (the Tories would take eight and the Libdems five).

Yep, that’s way bad. The days when SNP leaders could just throw a tin of yellow paint at a map of Scotland are long gone. The party’s Westminste­r leader Stephen Flynn’s insistence that they can regain all their seats and win more sounds deluded.

With bad polls setting expectatio­ns, a good result for the SNP would be to retain 30 seats and lose just the 13. Such are the vagaries of the first-past-the-post electoral system that even with a relatively modest improvemen­t in the SNP’S popularity that should be possible in theory, but it’s looking pretty unlikely in reality.

Of course, we can’t predict. We all know what election campaigns are like. They’re notoriousl­y anarchic. Parties talk about controllin­g the narrative but they never really do. Every misfired remark is amplified and unscripted events torpedo the best-laid plans. Stories move on fast.

For the SNP right now, perhaps that’s a good thing. If you’re going to mess something up, this is the week to do it because by next week we’ll all be goggling at something else. Mr Swinney just has to make sure that something is not him, again.

But some campaign focus and discipline will be required. The SNP must focus on taking the fight to Labour (whose handling of Diane Abbott has been almost as bad as the SNP’S handling of the Matheson affair).

Mr Swinney and colleagues also need to rein in the independen­ce chat. There’s an understand­ing among voters that it’s not happening any time soon and it’s a long way down the birthday list even for many supporters. Even so, SNP figures can’t keep away from it. Mr Flynn was insisting yesterday that if the SNP win a majority of constituen­cies, it will be a mandate for independen­ce. Pollster Mark Diffley calls that “a core vote strategy” that might be useful in preventing firm independen­ce supporters from “drifting away” to Labour but could put off soft nationalis­ts who simply don’t see it as the priority.

So the dos and don’ts are clear but even if the SNP follow them, this election will be a toughie for the party.

Scottish voters are no longer charmed by the party. They are also feeling the excitement of impending change and the tug towards being part of it if they cast their vote for Labour. Hand of history and all that. People could do with a bit of the feelgood factor and it’s Labour that can deliver them that.

And if things do go badly for the SNP in July, it would be the first poor result in over a decade and would change the way voters saw them. Losing can be habit-forming.

So, for the sake of the SNP support, Mr Swinney needs to get his act together.

This isn’t a friendly.