Betting on politics
The betting markets for the coming UK general election provide little comfort for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative Party. With £6.15m matched on Betfair, the odds on Labour getting the most votes have shortened very slightly to 1.02 (98%), with the Conservatives on 60 (1.7%). Similarly, with £4.4m matched, Labour is at 1.06 to get an overall majority (94.3%), with a hung parliament out at 22 (4.5%).
Several sports spreadbetting firms, including Spreadex and Sporting Index, are also offering markets on the seat totals. These function in a similar way to financial spread betting in that the amount of money you make is the difference between the price at which you buy (or sell) a party and the final outcome (excluding the Speaker’s seat), multiplied by the stake. The current spreads are 427-437 for Labour, 115-123 for the Conservatives, 44-48 for the Liberal Democrats, 19-22 for the SNP and 4-6 for Reform.
Overall, these spreads are very likely to be understating the number of seats that the Conservative will get and overstating Labour’s total. However, I’d suggest that you stay away from political spread betting, simply because an unexpected outcome can potentially lead to large losses (and the spreads are much higher than with financial spread betting). At least with normal betting, you can’t lose any more than the amount that you stake.
Instead, I’d stick to individual seats. Sunak is unlikely to stick around for long after he loses the election, but I think he will cling on as MP, so I’d bet on the Conservatives to win Richmond and Northallerton at 1/3 (75%) with Bet 365. I think Labour will win Chingford and Wood Green at 4/11 (73.3%), as well as Edinburgh North and Leith at 1/2 (66.7%) and Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath at 1/8 (88.8%).