High cost of energy is threat to net zero
CLIMATE change is probably the most severe risk to the UK this century. However, it is vital that actions taken to mitigate it do not themselves create risks to the UK
I am aware of plans to mitigate the risk due to climate change but I am not aware of any identification of the hazards arising from the proposed routes to phasing out fossil fuels and achieving net zero, which are black-outs and unaffordable electricity.
Wind and solar power are unreliable. Data shows the best day in summer, wind and solar have produced 100% of electricity demand and on the worst night in winter have produced as little as 2%. If wind and solar generation is increased tenfold, winter generation could be as low as 20% and summer generation could be at 1,000%.
Currently, gas is the back-up to unreliable and intermittent wind and solar electricity generation.
Once that is stopped in 2030, electricity from storage is essential to avoid blackouts.
By 2030, the plan is to install a further 50gW of offshore and onshore wind electricity generation. With no gas generation, a back-up supply must be operational by that date to avoid the risk of catastrophic blackouts.
The commissioning of new wind farms in the next five years is three times what has been achieved in the last 14 years. Gearing up for this and the backup, will be costly.
Five nuclear power stations will come offline before 2030. Hinkley Point C is due to start up in 2031, but this is not guaranteed. Sizewell C is planned to start producing electricity after 2040.
In the early 2030s, the UK will stop selling petrol, diesel and hybrid cars and stop installing gas boilers. These will require a massive increase in electricity generation.
There is an expectation electricity costs will fall when wind and solar generation replace gas. This is simplistic, as gas electricity generation is the current back-up to unreliable and intermittent wind and solar. Once gas is removed, additional wind and solar generation will be required, along with new storage infrastructure.
There is overwhelming public support in the fight to tackle global warming and climate breakdown. However, support might wane if blackouts occur, or the cost of electricity becomes unaffordable.
Dave Everett