Tories in ‘deep hole’ as another poll forecasts huge losses
THE Conservatives are in a “deep hole”, a pollster has said after a survey of more than 10,000 people suggested the party would hold just 155 seats.
The poll by More In Common projected a Labour majority of 162, just shy of its 1997 and 2001 landslides, with the Conservatives slumping to their worst seat total since 1906.
High-profile casualties forecast in the More In Common projection include Chancellor Jeremy Hunt, who would lose his Godalming and Ash seat to the Liberal Democrats, and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, who would lose Welwyn Hatfield to Labour.
The results are the most favourable for the Conservatives of recent large-scale polls.
The poll suggested Labour would make gains across the North of England and the Midlands, while becoming the largest party in Scotland and winning much of Wales.
Luke Tryl, executive director of More In Common UK, said the fact it is one of the more positive polls for the Tories “shows how deep a hole the party finds itself in” with barely two weeks left until polling day.
He said: “Far from the narrowing in the polls many expected to see by now, the Conservatives’ position instead appears to be getting worse and only a small move away from them could see them reduced to 107 seats. Labour on the other hand looks set to inherit a historic majority while remaining largely undefined in the eyes of the electorate.”
But he warned the “broad electoral coalition” that looks set to secure power for Labour points to “potential difficulties in creating a governing agenda that unites such disparate tribes” at a time of heightened “electoral cynicism”.
Elsewhere, the poll forecasts the Liberal Democrats returning to their previous position as the third party and quadrupling their seats to reach 49 MPs, roughly the same number they achieved in 1997.
The poll, conducted on behalf of The News Agents podcast, surveyed 10,850 people.
Unlike the Ipsos poll, the More In Common survey forecasts Reform UK winning no seats, with the Tories holding Clacton. But the poll is based on data collected between May 22 and June 17, which includes the period before Nigel Farage announced his decision to stand.