A thumping, but PM must keep up the fight
tHERE’S no sugar- coating it. the local election results were a painful and profoundly dispiriting experience for the Conservatives. they expected a thumping, and they most certainly got one.
More than 400 councillors unseated, control of eight authorities lost and a near-record drubbing in the Blackpool South by-election showed the Himalayan scale of the mountain they must climb to avoid being wiped out in the general election.
Yes, there were crumbs of comfort. the hugely impressive Ben Houchen retained the tees Valley mayoralty, and Labour failed to win Harlow council in Essex, contrary to expectations.
But these victories had a distinctly pyrrhic feel. the overall message was that the tories remain firmly in the electoral doghouse.
How quickly their fortunes have evaporated since the euphoria of Boris Johnson’s 2019 landslide and strong showing in local elections just three years ago thanks to the Covid vaccine miracle.
tory MPs have no- one to blame but themselves. Instead of buckling down and rewarding the public’s faith, they have been obsessed with factionalism and conspiracy.
the disastrous decision to depose Mr Johnson, their biggest electoral asset, was followed by the brief rise and chaotic fall of Liz truss. It was like some grotesque farce.
Rishi Sunak has since done an admirable job of steadying the ship, but he too has been constantly undermined by a fifth column of his own backbenchers.
Mercifully the plotters seem finally to have realised that another palace coup before the general election would be fatal to any hope of recovery.
One said yesterday they had ‘given up and gone to the pub’. If they have nothing constructive to offer, they should do everyone a favour and stay there.
So, is there anything in these results to give the PM a glimmer of hope? Well, maybe. Although Sir Keir Starmer was publicly jubilant about his party’s performance, it was not quite as overwhelming as he might have hoped.
His vote share was marginally down on last year, suggesting momentum has stalled, and the loss of Oldham council will have been a bitter blow. Muslim voters there and in other parts of the North West ditched Labour for independent candidates over Sir Keir’s perceived failure to support the Palestinian cause in Gaza.
If this trend is replicated in the West Midlands, which also has a large Muslim population, it will bolster tory mayor Andy Street’s re-election chances.
He and Lord Houchen are easily the highest profile tory politicians outside Westminster. Should both win, Mr Sunak may feel considerably less forlorn.
Outside of the elections, the PM has had a good few weeks. the Rwanda scheme is getting off the ground at last and he has made powerful interventions on tackling ‘sicknote Britain’.
Inflation is almost back on target, the FtSE hit another record yesterday and business confidence is at a 12-month high. Workers will also be feeling the benefit of the cut in National Insurance.
A revival may not be probable but it’s not impossible. After all, theresa May had a 20point poll lead going into the 2017 election and lost her majority.
Also, although the swing in Blackpool South was large, turnout was pitiful, with some 75 per cent of those who voted Conservative in 2019 staying at home. With hard work and a clear tory vision, Mr Sunak may still win the doubters back.