COLONISING
What will it take to create a supercity on Mars?
SpaceX also has its sights on Mars, but the company’s ambitions stretch much further. It wants to create a self-sustaining settlement by around 2050 and plans to have a million people on Mars by the end of the century. But is that possible? Not in the time frame suggested, argues Krimigis. “First and foremost, you have to consider the effects of the radiation environment on the crew, both during transit and on the surface,” he says.
“It’s well known that there is no effective way of shielding against galactic cosmic rays during transit or on the Martian surface, and their long-term harm to humans is well-known.
“Further, the occasional solar eruptions and accompanying emissions of high-energy protons are very difficult to shield against, and certainly not during transit to the planet – the required shelter within the spacecraft would be prohibitively heavy in terms of total launch mass, although not insurmountable as more capable launch vehicles are developed. Space weather predictive capability is also still in its infancy, so we can know for certain what the Sun will do, especially over long periods.
“Secondly, the thin Martian atmosphere of carbon dioxide is hardly ideal for surface activities by a human crew. Coupled with the absence of a Martian magnetic field to protect against radiation, you’ll need to construct essential structures for long-term stays underground. Although all of these things are technically possible, in addition to the cost they bring into question the value of a colony on Mars in the first place. That’s why I believe a colony on Mars is a distant dream at best.”