Population hits 85.4 million in 2023
population grew by 92,824 to 85.4 TURKEY’S million in 2023, according to the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Although it’s crucial as it has been the highest population figure, the population growth rate unexpectedly dropped 1.1 per thousand.
We don’t know the exact impact of social and economic factors on the decrease in population growth rate. However, it’s not difficult to say that these impacts aren’t that substantial. The sharp drop in the population growth rate stemmed from the decrease in the foreign population in Turkey. The number of foreigners in the country declined by 253,000 in 2023, yearover-year. It has been a decrease which we didn’t see in previous years. The only exception is 2020. The foreign population fell by 80,000 in 2020 when the pandemic emerged. It rose in all other years. The Interior Ministry didn’t renew the permits of the foreign unqualified labor force who lived in Turkey with resident or work permits. That is the main reason for the decline in the foreign population last year.
The Address Based Population Registration System includes those with resident and work permits and international protection identity certificates in the population. It doesn’t include foreigners with visas and resident permits of less than three months coming into the country for different reasons such as courses, tourism, scientific research, and Syrians with temporary protection status in the population.
Another issue I want to draw your attention to is the provinces’ longterm population change. Turkey’s population grew by 32% from 2000 to 2023. However, there are predictably some provinces where population growth is faster than Turkey overall.
Yalova, Tekirdag, and Antalya, with a population growth of 110%, 102%, and 88%, respectively, topped. Kocaeli, Sanliurfa, Gaziantep and Mugla followed them. The surge in Tekirdag, Yalova, and Kocaeli stemmed from the economic growth, and those who work in Istanbul and Bursa resided in these cities. The situation in Antalya and Mugla can be explained by the development of tourism, the increase in the number of those who left big cities and moved to these provinces, significant emigration, and increasing demand for the region after the pandemic.
On the other hand, the population declines in more than ten provinces. Ardahan, Yozgat, Kars, Corum, and Erzincan were the cities with the fastest-declining population from 2000 to 2023. Provinces with decreased population aren’t just in the Eastern Anatolia region. There are also cities from the Aegean and Central Anatolia and Black Sea regions, such as Tokat, Corum, Sivas, Zonguldak, Kutahya, Yozgat, and Kirikkale.
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE DOWN IN DECEMBER
The unemployment rate dropped from 8.9% in November to 8.8% in December. It hit 10.3% in December
2022. The employment rate rose by 60 basis points to 48.8%, and the labor force participation rate increased by 50 basis points to 53.5% in the same period.
The number of employees surged by 399,000 to 32.05 million, and some 35.15 million people made up the labor force in December, up 387,000 from a month ago. The fact that the increase in the employment rate was higher than the surge in the labor force participation rate reduced the unemployment rate. Thus, the number of employed people fell by 12,000 to 3.09 million in December, monthover-month.
The unemployment rate dropped by 30 basis points to 7.1% in males and rose by 10 basis points to 12% in females in December, compared to the previous month, in line with the seasonally adjusted data.
Considering the January reading of the Istanbul Chamber of Industry (ISO) Turkey Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers Index), employment remained steady following the limited hike in December, and five out of ten sectors raised employment.
The expectation of employment for the next three months increased in the non-manufacturing sectors, including services, retail, and construction industries, and decreased in the remaining two sectors.
RELUCTANT SLOWDOWN IN CONSUMPTION
The retail sales volume index showed that inflation-adjusted sales rose 11.4% in December. The consumption increased by 13.5%, 13%, 12.6% and 11.4% in the last four months of 2023. It indicates that the desired slowdown in consumption proceeds slowly. A consumption hike of 11.4% in real terms is a high rate for many countries. It is a dangerously high rate for a country like Turkey willing to reduce inflation.
So far, the Central Bank and economy administration preferred to prevent the economy from a sudden slowdown. Although it shows that there is an inertia to pressure consumption appetite to reduce inflation in the country, it is a conscious choice of policymakers to protect the business world and prevent bankruptcies and credit defaults.
So far, we have seen a policy choice that anticipates a soft landing in inflation and protects the producer and consumer sides.
However, if this stance continues for a long time, there will be days when achieving the target will gradually become difficult. That’s why it’s necessary to reduce consumption hike to 4-5% without reducing to the negative zone and keep it at this level for a fair amount of time.