ABOUT Politics
With a risky economic policy in the offing, the PM needs to relinquish Finance Ministry control to an expert, observer says It’s thought Pheu Thai will put Jakrapob Penkair to work countering the MFP threat following his return from exile Srettha needs just one job
The ruling Pheu Thai Party came to power chiefly on promises to reboot the economy, which have yet to pan out, say critics.
To give the economy a lift might require Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin to forego the finance minister position he concurrently holds, which could also lead to a wider reshuffle of the cabinet.
The party’s defunct predecessors, Thai Rak Thai (TRT) and the People Power Party (PPP) prioritised the economy, which paid dividends in raking in substantial political support and consolidating their strongholds across many constituencies.
After the two parties were dissolved by order of the Constitutional Court over electoral fraud, Pheu Thai rose from their ashes and the new party now carries the baton of putting economic policies first.
The three parties all capitalised on their success formulas, which centre on policies seeking to put the economy on steroids, according to critics.
The quick-win manifesto called for the adoption of short and medium-term projects, termed populist in nature, with a strong chance of delivering concrete results promptly within the lifespan of the administration, a requisite for political parties to expand their reach.
The TRT’s flagship economic splurge, according to the critics, was the one-millionbaht village fund which allocated one million baht to all of the almost 75,000 villages nationwide. The TRT’s demise saw its rebirth into the PPP, which inherited much of the populist welfare-oriented agenda from its predecessor to maintain political dominance.
With Pheu Thai, the rice-pledging scheme worth several hundred billion baht became the party’s economic centrepiece.
It was implemented by the Yingluck Shinawatra government immediately after the 2011 election, which Pheu Thai won by a landslide. The policy was supposed to offer farmers the opportunity to pledge and afterwards provide an unlimited supply of their rice to the government at a higher price than they would fetch by selling them at market rates. The ultimate aim of the scheme was to hike rice prices to protect farmers from greedy middlemen.
The rice-pledging programme, however, met with a tragic end in August 2017 when the Supreme Court’s Criminal Division for Holders of Political Positions found 15 people guilty of involvement in bogus governmentto-government (G2G) rice deals.
Former commerce minister Boonsong Teriyapirom was sentenced to 42 years in prison, while his deputy, Poom Sarapol, was handed a 36-year prison term.
Yingluck was sentenced to five years in prison in absentia for dereliction of duty over the rice-pledging programme that ran up at least 500 billion baht in losses, some of it from corruption.
Now that Pheu Thai is back in control after a nine-year hiatus during which two Prayut Chan-o-cha administrations were in power, the party has come up with yet another economic stimulus behemoth, this time in the form of the digital wallet handout scheme, which promises to drain the country’s coffers by at least half a trillion baht.
A source said the Srettha government realises it cannot afford to mess up this time as the stakes are too high. Its chances of returning to the glory days and reclaiming large swaths of voter support hinge entirely on the success of the handout programme, although it must first get the scheme off the drawing board.
But for this to materialise, a great deal of planning and analysing — which ensures that the legal minefield is sidestepped — is paramount. An impression has been created about how important the work of Deputy Finance Minister Julapun Amornvivat is as he has often found himself in the firing line for repeated rejigs over who the scheme’s beneficiaries should be and launch date delays.
Mr Srettha, meanwhile, is so tied up with his overseas trips that he hardly has time to check on progress of priority policies.
The source said it may be time for Mr Srettha to let go of the finance portfolio he has had since becoming premier and allow an economic maestro to take over.
Likely contenders to become the country’s chief financial official have been floated, including Kittirat Na Ranong, a finance minister during the Yingluck administration. However, speculation over Mr Kittirat was quickly dismissed after talk of Pichai Chunhavajira, an adviser to the prime minister, landing the post began making the rounds.
The source said economic challenges should be left in the hands of experts and Mr Pichai looks to fit the bill.
It was reported that the appointment of a new minister will ease the premier’s workload. However, Mr Srettha has repeatedly denied that a cabinet revamp is in the offing, saying ministers need more time to prove their worth.
Mr Pichai, a capital markets veteran, could come in handy as finance minister, as it is thought he would be able to mediate between the Srettha administration and the central bank with which the premier has clashed on how to revive the economy.
Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnareuput has ignored Mr Srettha’s call to cut interest rates as a quick fix to accelerate economic growth amid a period of deflation.
Despite Mr Srettha ruling out a cabinet shake-up in the near future, some observers think changes will come sooner rather than later, with parliament now in recess.
Conservative forces get boost
After 15 years in self-imposed exile, former red-shirt leader Jakrapob Penkair returned to Thailand on March 28, shortly after he announced on Facebook that he would come back to “serve the country”.
His homecoming welcome was rather muted, compared to that of former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra who returned on Aug 22 last year.
Upon arrival at Suvarnabhumi airport, he was quickly escorted by police to the Crime Suppression Division (CSD) to face criminal charges. The 56-year-old political activist was wanted under an arrest warrant for allegedly colluding in the possession of weapons and ammunition without permission, as well as for illegal assembly.
Released on 400,000-baht bail, Mr Jakrapob gave a brief media interview in which he expressed confidence in the legal process and reiterated his intention to work for the country.
Mr Jakrapob’s return has aroused curiosity among political watchers who are wondering what role he might play in “serving the country” now that Pheu Thai has forged an alliance with those in the so-called conservative camp and is believed to have assumed the role of its leader.
Although he has criminal charges to fight, Mr Jakrapob is expected to play a significant role within the ruling party. He is known for his exceptional communication abilities and was widely regarded as one of the key strategists of the red-shirt movement.
Working behind the scenes, he can mentor and coach young Pheu Thai politicians, ensuring its lawmakers are on a par with their counterparts, particularly those from the main opposition Move Forward Party (MFP), according to observers.
Mr Jakrapob made a name for himself hosting a talk show before entering politics.
He served as a government spokesman during the Thaksin government between 2003 and 2005, and was appointed PM’s Office minister during the 2008 Samak Sundaravej administration.
However, he resigned as a minister that same year after being accused of lese majeste in a talk at the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand in August 2007.
He fled Thailand and went into selfimposed exile in 2009. The lese majeste charge was dropped in September 2011, but following the 2014 coup d’etat, he remained overseas.
Following Mr Jakrapob’s return, speculation is also rife among observers that several activists with close connections to the ruling party who also fled the country will soon return to Thailand after undergoing “attitude adjustment”.
This adjustment is thought to be a shift towards the conservative camp where Pheu Thai will spearhead a campaign against the MFP, which is perceived as a mutual threat by the ruling party and pro-establishment parties.
According to Thanaporn Sriyakul, director of the Political and Public Policy Analysis Institute, the ruling party will have an uphill battle due to the MFP’s steady rise in popularity.
The main opposition party’s approval rating has risen to 48.45% from 44.05% in December last year, while Pheu Thai’s rating dropped to 22.10%, compared with 24.05% in December.
The first major battle is the upcoming election for 200 senators to succeed the 250-member chamber appointed by the now-defunct National Council for Peace and Order. The five-year term of the juntaappointed senators will expire on May 10, but they will carry on until the new senators assume office.
The battle for Senate control is expected to be intense because the new Senate will be authorised to endorse appointments of members of independent agencies, although they will no longer be allowed to co-elect a prime minister.
With two members of the National AntiCorruption Commission due to retire later this year and three more retiring next year, influential figures are widely believed to be trying to manipulate the outcome.
According to Mr Thanaporn, the Senate also has the power to approve charter amendments, making the stakes higher for the MFP and its allies. They have failed over the past few years in their push for a charter rewrite due to a lack of support in the Upper House.
Citing the MFP’s popularity, the analyst reckons the new Senate is highly likely to include people who share the main opposition party’s ideology and values.
So, it is possible that endorsement of the Senate election’s outcome will drag on to enable the caretaker senators to endorse new appointments in public independent agencies.
Mr Thanaporn cited the Senate’s rejection of Wisanu Waranyu as the new Supreme Administrative Court president as an attempt to block people with alleged affiliations with the MFP.