Eskom’s productivity exceeds its winter forecasts as load shedding recedes for now
ESKOM’S operational efficiency continued to surpass its winter forecasts, the power utility said on Friday.
Current unplanned outages averaged between 9 800MW and 12 400MW since April 1, the start of Eskom’s financial year 2025. On Friday that figure had been reduced to 9 866MW and is significantly lower than the winter 2024 forecast, the utility said.
This as the ongoing suspension of load shedding continued, the power utility said, marking 128 consecutive days of uninterrupted power supply since March; including 94 days of constant supply throughout the winter period.
The last time South Africa experienced such a prolonged load shedding suspension was over four years ago, between March 16, 2020 and July 9, 2020 when load shedding was suspended for 116 days.
Eskom said it maintained an average energy availability factor (EAF) of 71% over the past seven days. The EAF had surpassed 70% on numerous occasions in the past two weeks. This equated to 33 180MW available in generation capacity which was a substantial improvement from April, last year when the average daily available generation capacity was at 23 7000MW.
“The Generation Recovery Plan continues to deliver efficiencies for Eskom, with an approximate R9.37 billion reduction in open-cycle gas turbines (OCGTs) diesel expenditure from April 1, 2024 to July 25, 2024 compared to the same period last year.
“Six power stations: Kusile, Lethabo, Majuba, Tutuka, Matla, and Medupi recorded an EAF greater than 70%. Additionally, three more power stations achieved an EAF above 60%. Notably, five of these power stations were part of the priority list in the recovery plan,” it said.
Eskom told Business Report, “Recently, more units have been taken out of service for thorough maintenance and to upgrade environmental/ emission- reduction projects. However, this reduces the available capacity, thereby impacting the EAF in the interim.
“This will in the long run ensure reliability of the generation fleet to deliver long-term benefits and ensure security of energy supply and in emission reduction.”
Professor Raymond Parsons, an economist at North West University’s Business School, said what was essential now was that the progress made so far by Eskom in eliminating load shedding must be made irreversible.
“South Africa must consolidate what has been achieved on the energy front up till now. Eliminating load shedding to date has been the outcome of both Eskom reducing its unplanned outages and improved maintenance, as well as the government’s policy of expanding alternative energy supplies through the private sector.
“The more permanent the formula for success ‘in keeping the lights on’ so far is seen to be, the better it will be for SA’s economic performance,” Parsons said.
The ongoing impact of these two factors was therefore now required to ultimately ensure that Eskom’s load shedding has once and for all become a thing of the past.