Low voter turnout on the cards as it stands
SHOULD current trends hold, a low voter turnout scenario – in which only the most “committed” voters participate – could see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls.
This is according to a survey by market research company Ipsos, based on the views of 2 545 registered voters interviewed. Interviews were conducted in the homes and home languages of respondents from March 9 to April 15.
Currently the Electoral Commission of SA (IEC) has recorded 27 698 369 registered voters across the country.
For its survey, Ipsos said it considered indicators such as interest in politics, desire to vote, stated intention to vote, and depth of party loyalty. By analysing responses to this series of survey questions, its algorithm generated three possible turnout scenarios.
“Should the current trends hold, a low voter turnout scenario – in which only the most committed voters participate – could see between 41% and 43% of registered voters heading to the polls.
“In a medium turnout scenario, the model indicates that the voter turnout rate may be between 57% and 59%. On the high end, Ipsos’s projections suggest that as many as 74% to 76% of registered voters could cast their ballots if voter enthusiasm reaches its peak,” Ipsos said.
In its possible scenarios, a lower voter turnout sees the ANC take 48% of the vote, the DA 20%, the EFF 10.3%, MKP 8.9% and other parties 11.4%. The high voter turnout scenario sees other parties taking a bigger cut of the vote at 12.6%, while the ANC takes 43%, the DA 21.5% and the EFF 11.1%.
Policy analyst Nkosikhulule Nyembezi said all citizens must use the ballot to “reward candidates who honoured election promises and punish those who have not”.
“Voters and analysts have long regarded how parties perform in the recent by-elections as a moment of high peril for incumbents, with the results likely to anticipate each party’s fate at the May 29 elections.
“But I also suggest that by-election losses during a national campaign could push some ANC officials over the edge. When a party president’s comment circulates on social media, telling party leaders they are not campaigning enough, defending the recent ANC losses in the by-elections is difficult.
“Most ANC leaders are not on the battlefield this time; it is like the army without the generals.
“Yet while ANC supporters appear resigned to losing this many local council seats nationwide, they bristle at the prospect of defeat in their metro mayoralties that account for large percentages of voters in national and provincial elections.”
Nyembezi added that the tail-end of election campaigns may have already “missed the boat”, as voter decisions on whether to vote or not, whether to vote for a large or small party, “were largely predictable”.
“Voters tend to evaluate political parties with a confirmatory bias. Specifically, voters begin a memory search by looking for reasons to select rather than not choosing a specific political party.”
After a successful weekend showcasing more than 30 local and international artists across four stages, the festival welcomed thousands of guests – affectionately known as Festinos – for the 21st instalment of “Africa’s Grandest Gathering”, said CTIJF spokesperson, Kaz Henderson.
The festival is the biggest jazz event on the continent and the most diverse and best mix of local and international talent, Henderson said.
“More than 18 500 Festinos reconnected with the CTIJF over the weekend, in addition to the thousands who filled Greenmarket Square at Thursday’s free concert. In conversation with several artists throughout the festival, all expressed how glad they were to know that the festival is back – and judging by the packed stages, audiences agree with this sentiment too, marking a successful return of the festival which also celebrated its 21st staging this past weekend,” said Henderson. After a four-year hiatus and ensuring that Festinos can look forward to at least the next three years of great jazz and jazz-related music, the Survé family, proprietors of the festival, announced on Friday that they will be committing R100 million to the arts, including support of “Africa’s Grandest Gathering.”
“Behind the scenes, the CTIJF has once more created an opportunity for some of the country’s best sound and lighting engineers, stage management professionals and producers to showcase their craft through the delivery of a world-class event. The programming was outstanding this year, as reflected in the diverse audience from across the country and beyond our borders who experienced this year’s festival, some for the first time, and for others, a reconnection with the music
and fellow festival lovers. There is no doubt the CTIJF is back and it means business,” said Henderson.
Chairperson of the Sekunjalo Group, Dr Iqbal Survé, said since owning the festival in 2007, they have funded 80 schools, teachers and instruments, while also having sent a number of young aspiring musicians on music scholarships. He added that this was a philanthropic endeavour to give back to the arts.
In a post on social media following her performances at the free concert at Green Market Square on Thursday and the festival’s Kippies stage on Friday, Judith Sephuma, said: “South Africa Cape Town, you were just amazing. What an amazing weekend we had at the Cape Town International Jazz Festival. Absolutely beautiful. The love is so real.”
Of their Friday night performance, Mi Casa, said: “It’s never the same and surely therein lies the magic of it all. [Friday night] we were fortunate to perform at the Cape Town Jazz Festival in front of a community of people that oozed with so much good energy!
“We appreciate everything… the moments we share were beyond magical. Still pinch ourselves every time we get to do what we do. Unreal…All our love.”