America’s agenda: More predictions come true
OUR June 23 column, “The hand of America: When warnings come true,” wished that predictions about Washington’s schemes in our country over the past year did not come true — but they did — due to their adverse impact on our politics and security.
The United States seeks to weaponize our country for the top US global priority, spelled out on page 23 of its National Security Strategy: “Out-Competing China and Constraining Russia” (https://tinyurl. com/4xvyut3f — just remember that paramount goal when President Joe Biden calls for an end to wars at the United Nations summit on September 22 and 23).
This writer had repeatedly warned that escalating US military deployment with access to our bases since February 2023 would lead to growing frictions would lead to growing frictions with China, just as similar moves by superpowers to weaponize countries next door to rival countries led to Washington’s ongoing seven-decade economic embargo on Cuba, which nearly installed Russian atomic missiles in 1962. Ditto with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine for seeking to join the US-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).
Our March 12, 2023 article also warned that Washington and its Filipino political and media allies would aim to perpetuate its access to bases of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA) by undermining Vice President Sara Duterte to prevent another Duterte presidency. Her father, then president Rodrigo Duterte, stalled EDCA’s rollout and nearly scrapped its legal basis, the Visiting Forces Agreement.
Now, other predictions have been happening, also driven by America’s agenda, but with positive outcomes
No shooting please …
One positive prediction was that Washington would avoid war with Beijing and thus not intervene in our frictions with China even if the US may have joint patrols with us.
The March 21 column, “Will EDCA help secure our lands and seas? No,” stated that “while Uncle Sam will sail with our navy and coast guard, it would carefully avoid conflict with the Chinese. That’s exactly why President Biden pressed Xi Jinping during their meeting in San Francisco last November to resume communications between their militaries — let’s talk, not shoot” (https://tinyurl. com/34bjxzn8). The latest US-China defense talks in Beijing last week addressed South China Sea tensions.
Washington fears having to fight wars in Europe, the Middle East and Asia. Also, American casualties would hurt the Democratic Party in the November US elections. Plus, Western weapons stocks are strained due to years of arming Ukraine, with a top Washington think-tank cautioning in January 2023 that American forces would run out of precision-guided munitions in less than a week of fighting just over Taiwan.
To avoid direct US conflict with China, the AFP and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) have insisted on mounting sorties on their own, despite Washington’s offers to provide escorts and the mammoth mismatch between our sea forces and China’s.
Joint patrols, like one planned by the US, Australia, Japan and India, do not stake maritime claims. But escorting PCG and AFP sorties asserting our sovereign rights could pit the US against China.
Recently, we have resumed talks to ease Beijing tensions. Thus, the PCG and AFP would avoid further incidents endangering our troops with nil gain, not even getting support from our Southeast Asian neighbors. That’s a relief for our seamen — while it lasts (more on this later).
… and no Asian NATO
That brings us to another prediction for peace: Asian nations will resist US moves to create a NATO-like alliance. Our February 22 column on Indonesian president-elect Prabowo Subianto (“With Prabowo, may Jakarta stay the peace course?”) said: “With its Muslim majority and its longtime opposition to Israel, Indonesia isn’t likely to tie up with staunch Israel ally America.”
The article also quoted Prabowo telling Indonesia’s Kompas paper that his country is “very friendly” with China, “respects” America and is “friendly” with Russia. Taking over on October 20, the former general and defense chief added: “We are non-aligned; we are friends with all countries. So, I think that’s what’s important.”
Outgoing President Joko Widodo had also warned Asean leaders and foreign ministers last year that the grouping should not become a big-power proxy: “Do not make our ship, Asean, an arena of rivalry that destroys each other, but … a field to foster cooperation [for prosperity and peace] not only for the region but also for the world.”
Also reflecting Asean’s half-century neutrality stance, then-prime minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore remarked in February about our US alliance: “Are you sure you want to get into a fight where you will be the battleground?”
Further on Asean resistance to US bloc-building, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said: “In their eyes, the adverse actions on China’s rise, militarily, economically and technologically, represent nothing less than an attempt to deny their legitimate place in history. The obstacles being placed against China’s … advancement will only further accentuate such grievances.”
This perspective goes beyond Asean leaders. The annual State of Southeast Asia 2024 survey reports: “China has edged past the US to become the prevailing choice (50.5 percent) if the region were forced to align itself in the ongoing US-China rivalry. … Close to half of the respondents (46.8 percent) believe that Asean should enhance its resilience and unity to fend off pressures from the two major powers” (https:// tinyurl.com/4bysb3kn).
With no NATO rising in Asia, the region would hopefully avoid Europe’s tensions and, since 2022, actual war as NATO sought to expand its power and reach, ignoring warnings even from Western diplomats about intimidating Russia.
But there is one worry for the Philippines. With most of Asia refusing to ally against Beijing, Washington will want to cement its military presence here. One possible move is to engineer a limited firefight so Filipinos allow permanent US forces. An incident may also be triggered. That may happen, too, if former president Donald Trump looks set to win and reduce American defense deployment abroad.
That was the warning in our January 21 column, “Why US elections could nudge Asia closer to war” (https://tinyurl.com/2kbtztv2). May that fear prove wrong.