China into America’s Pacific Century
FAR from de-escalating, the China-Philippines dispute in the South China Sea takes one more step toward escalation.
Latest development is that the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) ship BRP Teresa Magbanua has dropped anchor for no apparent reason in the vicinity of Escoda (Sabina) Shoal and has stayed put there. As of this writing, the PCG has made no indication that the vessel would leave the area. Speculation is rife that the PCG is poised to do a similar ruse to the grounding of the BRP Sierra Madre on Ayungin Shoal in 1999 and not letting go of the atoll since. That was how the reef, to China’s chagrin, became a Philippine military outpost manned by Philippine Marines.
Now we have one more atoll being schemed to host the grounding of another dilapidated PCG vessel as a pretext for actually building another military station.
The scheme is quite evident. With one more “grounded” PCG vessel needing regular resupply missions similar to those being done to the BRP Sierra Madre, occasions of skirmishes with the ever vigilant and fiercely strict law enforcers that are the China Coast Guard personnel will necessarily double, to say the least.
In any case, the more probable it is for the Philippines-China sea dispute to escalate finally into war. Let us always bear in mind President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s oft-repeated dare to regard as an act of war any action of China that will result in one dead Filipino. In that event, he will invoke the US-Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty, thus calling in the military assistance of America.
By doing so, President Marcos shall have fulfilled what amounted to a virtual prophecy made by former US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
In an article titled “America’s Pacific Century,” published on Oct. 11, 2011 by the Foreign Policy website, Clinton wrote:
“The future of politics will be decided in Asia, not Afghanistan or Iraq, and the United States will be right at the center of the action.
“As the war in Iraq winds down and America begins to withdraw its forces from Afghanistan, the United States stands at a pivot point. Over the last 10 years, we have allocated immense resources to those two theaters. In the next 10 years, we need to be smart and systematic about where we invest time and energy, so that we put ourselves in the best position to sustain our leadership, secure our interests and advance our values. One of the most important tasks of American statecraft over the next decade will therefore be to lock in a substantially increased investment — diplomatic, economic, strategic and otherwise — in the Asia-Pacific region.”
What the Philippines has become after 2011 serves to validate Clinton’s contentions in the article.
On April 8, 2012, the Philippine Navy ship BRP Gregorio del Pilar attempted to apprehend a number of fishing vessels from China which were fishing near the Scarborough Shoal. China’s navy promptly came to the rescue of the Chinese fishermen, resulting in what has gone down in the annals as the Scarborough Shoal Standoff. Several days after, the Philippine vessel withdrew — in effect surrendering the confrontation.
According to reports, it was the United States that gave the order for the BRP Gregorio del Pilar to withdraw, on the understanding that the Chinese navy would do the same. But the Chinese navy stayed put — to assert possession of Scarborough Shoal up to this day.
Certainly, the episode illustrated how China, by that action, just