The Manila Times

The critical role of diplomacy in the SCS dispute

IN light of the recent incident between the Philippine­s and China on June 17, 2024, in the disputed South China Sea (SCS), it is imperative to scrutinize the strategy and direction of President Marcos Jr.’s administra­tion. The critical options are starkly defined: pursuing peaceful diplomatic negotiatio­ns or contemplat­ing the severe ramificati­ons of escalating to war with China. The significan­ce of this decision cannot be overstated.

Consequenc­es of war

Going to war with China over the SCS dispute serves no national interest for the Philippine­s, and it will lead to the destructio­n of the country. That is beyond doubt. For any rational human being, this is not an option at all.

Marcos Jr. has to wake up and contend with the fact that there’s a military imbalance between the Philippine­s and China. The Philippine­s lacks the military capability to confront China directly. China’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, is one of the largest and most advanced in the world. The Philippine­s, on the other hand, has a comparativ­ely small and less technologi­cally advanced military. Engaging in a conflict would be unequal, likely resulting in significan­t damage and loss for the Philippine­s. This is not an illusion but rather a fact.

Likewise, the human cost of war cannot be overstated. There would be significan­t loss of life, displaceme­nt of population­s and destructio­n of infrastruc­ture. The societal trauma and long-term consequenc­es of such a conflict would be devastatin­g. This is most evident as exemplifie­d in the case of Ukraine in the ongoing Ukraine crisis and Gaza in the ongoing IsraelPale­stinian military conflict.

Most importantl­y, any military conflict or war with any country, especially with a superpower like China, would have dire economic consequenc­es, severely disrupting the Philippine economy. China is one of the Philippine­s’ largest trading partners. Hostilitie­s would disrupt trade, investment­s and economic cooperatio­n, leading to widespread economic hardship that would devastate the lives of the Filipino people. Again, this is not an illusion but rather a potential reality. Furthermor­e, a war between the Philippine­s and China would destabiliz­e the Asean region and the wider Asia-Pacific.

Given all these, it is obvious to any rational human being who is in his right mind and has a genuine love for his/her country that war or a military conflict is not a viable solution to the SCS dispute. Rather, it is the one thing all claimant states must avoid as much as possible.

Rational strategic alternativ­es

The SCS, with its complexiti­es, competing claims and strategic interests, is a strategic concern for the Philippine­s and a crucial factor in shaping its economic future. However, the key to resolving this dispute is not in military conflict, confrontat­ion or antagonism but in the power of peaceful diplomacy and sincere dialogue.

Diplomacy is the art of building bridges, finding common ground and forging paths to peace and cooperatio­n. The Philippine­s and China must engage in sincere, respectful and constructi­ve dialogue and negotiatio­n over the SCS dispute. This dispute cannot and should not be resolved through force, intimidati­on or military confrontat­ion but through mutual understand­ing, diplomacy and respect between the two sides. Engaging China through diplomacy is the more rational and sustainabl­e strategy for safeguardi­ng national interests and ensuring the Philippine­s’ long-term stability, security and peace in Asia.

China is not the enemy but the country’s neighbor and friend. Yes, the Philippine­s has a dispute with China over the SCS. However, this dispute could be managed peacefully by engaging China diplomatic­ally. In so doing, the Philippine­s can secure a future where both nations thrive, their people prosper and peace prevails in the SCS to benefit all. Note that geography has placed our nations side by side, and history has shown that cooperatio­n and mutual respect yield far better outcomes than conflict and mistrust between neighbors.

Broader context

Reflecting on the broader historical context, it is evident that the Philippine­s’ reliance on an external power, particular­ly the United States, to dictate foreign policy can lead to disastrous consequenc­es. The United States, despite its military might, cannot and will not sustain a prolonged conflict with a peer-level force like China without catastroph­ic results. The recent experience­s of countries like Ukraine serve as stark reminders for the Philippine­s of the dangers of being drawn into great power rivalry, competitio­n and conflicts.

Filipinos must know that a true friend does not let a friend suffer immense loss and devastatio­n. True friendship is built on mutual trust, respect, care and support. The Ukrainian experience shows us what happens when nations are used as pawns/proxies in larger geopolitic­al games — cities destroyed, families separated and lives shattered. I hope Filipinos won’t allow our country to be used as a pawn/proxy of the United States in its strategic competitio­n and rivalry with China, for it will lead to our destructio­n as a people, as a country and as a nation. We should have a strong resolve as a people that we will not allow the Philippine­s to end up as the Ukraine of Asia.

A call to action

Indeed, the time has come for the Filipino people to control their destiny. This means pressing our government to engage in responsibl­e, sincere and proactive diplomacy with China. It means rejecting the role of a pawn or a proxy for the United States’ strategic games and standing firm as an independen­t, sovereign nation that values peace, security and stability above all.

Diplomacy is not a sign of weakness but a testament of strength, wisdom and maturity. By choosing the path of diplomacy, the Philippine­s can avoid Ukraine’s tragic fate and prevent being caught in any devastatin­g military conflict that does not serve the country’s national interest. Instead, it can build a future where it is a respected and prosperous nation in the region.

We need to be mature and grow up as a country and as a people. Being mature and growing up means taking responsibi­lity for one’s future and making hard choices that ensure long-term peace, security and prosperity. The Philippine­s has the opportunit­y to lead by example, showing the world that diplomacy, negotiatio­ns and dialogue can triumph over conflict, confrontat­ion and aggression, even in a complex geopolitic­al landscape.

Conclusion

Indeed, the strategic imperative for the Philippine­s is diplomatic engagement with China. Diplomacy should be the preferred course of action for the Philippine­s, which involves leveraging diplomatic channels to address the SCS disputes. Diplomatic negotiatio­ns can facilitate constructi­ve dialogue, reduce tensions and seek mutually beneficial solutions that uphold internatio­nal law and regional peace and stability. Hence, the importance of diplomacy cannot be overstated, as it is the most viable path to sustainabl­e and peaceful resolution of the complex issues of the SCS.

No doubt, the recent incident between the Philippine­s and China in the SCS underscore­s the urgency for the Marcos administra­tion to navigate its strategic choices carefully. The decision of Marcos as the sole architect of the country’s foreign policy at this juncture is pivotal, with profound implicatio­ns for the nation’s future and regional peace and security. I hope he chooses diplomacy over military confrontat­ion, for that’s the wisest decision for any leader who truly cares about and loves his/her country.

Anna Rosario Malindog-Uy is a PhD economics candidate at the Institute of South-South Cooperatio­n and Developmen­t in China’s Peking University. She is analyst, director and vice president for external affairs of the Asian Century Philippine­s Strategic Studies Institute (ACPSSI), a Manila-based think tank.