Disregarding data collection
A comprehensive report on the state of provincial economies, akin to the National Pakistan Economic Survey, does not appear to be forthcoming.
Currently, development efforts at the provincial level appear to be politically driven rather than aligned with the prioritised needs of the masses. Consequently, the outcomes are modest and have a high opportunity cost.
In economic terms, opportunity cost represents the potential benefits foregone when one alternative is chosen over another. It includes both implicit and explicit costs. This concept is particularly important in public finance, as the government is entrusted with spending public money to best serve the interests of the masses.
To achieve optimal development results, nations worldwide are increasingly shifting to evidence-based planning and interventions, relying on larger sets of relevant real-time data.
Encouraged by the unexpectedly positive outcomes of this strategy, as seen with the Benazir Income Support Programme and pandemic containment efforts, among others, the federal government is gradually adopting more advanced approaches to development planning.
This includes utilising new information technology options for data gathering and compilation and expanding the application of credible information across various sectors and segments to enhance governance efficiency and effectiveness.
Economic surveys of Sindh and Punjab cannot be expected in the near future as provincial bureaus continue to deprioritise statistics
Progress at the provincial level in systematic data collection and its application for improving governance quality appears to be slow. The persistent neglect of provincial bureaus of statistics and the lack of capacity in other relevant departments exacerbate this challenge.
As sub-national governments are busy finalising budgets, with the financial year ending in June, the provinces’ political and administrative leaders are too preoccupied to address issues they already consider peripheral. Responding to a query in this regard, Sindh Planning and Development Minister Nasir Hussain Shah responded in writing, “Capturing provincial economy is not simple.
“Limited data on inter-provincial trade, defence, household income and expenditure, imports and exports explicitly for the province, huge informal economy especially in the services sector are major impediments. “The provincial Bureau of Statistics is working on establishing regional accounts in Sindh. The exercise is expected to take two to three years.”
A senior member of the economic team in Punjab confirmed that fairly credible agriculture data has been collected, and partial information on the manufacturing sector has also been gathered, but covering the gigantic cash-based service sector is hard to cover and poses a major challenge.
The chief economists of the two bigger provinces, Sindh and Punjab, along with the other relevant secretaries, were approached for their input on calculating provincial GDP, details of contributing sectors, and key economic indicators. However, their responses were still pending at the time of filing this report.
A senior official in Islamabad, speaking anonymously, provided some insights over the phone. “Top-down estimation has begun in the provinces, but transitioning to a bottom-up approach requires two key developments that are currently in progress.
“First, the provinces need to build minimum capacity to understand the System of National Accounts (SNA) 2008, enabling them to conduct sustainable bottom-up surveys. Second, there needs to be an aggregation of provincial GDP by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics to ensure that the exercise remains non-political,” he explained.