IMF sees resilient global economy, edges up forecast to 3.2%
Global growth is forecast to edge up to 3.2% in2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said on Tuesday, slightly upwardly revising its January prediction of 3.1%. The IMF is forecasting growth of 3.2% in 2025.
The world economy has been buffeted by challenges in recent years,from pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and soaring food and energy prices, to tight monetary policy aimed at curbing inflation.
The IMF noted that, in general, the fear of both prices and wages being pushed up at an uncontrolled pace - referred to by economists as a wage-price spiral — has not materialised.
The US economy is projected to grow at a better-than-expected 2.7%this year while China’s is expected to come in at 4.6%.
Against that, the IMF sees more problems for the German economy,forecasting growth of just 0.2% for the current year due to persistently weak consumer sentiment.
That would be the weakest growth of all leading G7 industrialized nations for the current year. In January, the IMF had still expected growth of 0.5% in Germany.
There are some signs of improvement, though, and the fund expects the German economy to grow by 1.3% in 2025. Italy would then bring up the rear of the G7 countries with just 0.7%. In the long term, the fund is primarily concerned about structural problems in Germany, such as the decline in the size of the working population and obstacles to investment.
Despite what it frames as gloomy predictions, the fund says the world has been spared a recession. Still, while the world has managed to avoid gloomy predictions of recession, growth is weak from a historical perspective. The IMF cites factors such as higher borrowing costs and the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.