MENA shows highest renewable energy growth factor: IEA
The International Energy Agency (IEA) said that the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has great and varying ambitions and drivers to achieve the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by 2030.
In its report titled “COP28 Tripling Renewable Capacity Pledge: Tracking countries’ ambitions and identifying policies to bridge the gap”, the IEA explained that the MENA region shows the highest growth factor based on its ambitions – 4.5 times its current small base, led by Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Algeria.
“The MENA region accounts for less than 8% of global emissions from power generation and heat production. It aims to realise its significant untapped renewable energy potential by increasing capacity from less than 50GW in 2022 to 200GW by 2030,” the report said.
In total, the region seeks to raise its installed capacity by a factor of 4.5, the largest regional growth globally. However, the countries demonstrate stark differences in their levels of ambition and what drives it, the IEA noted.
Solar PV makes up almost half of the capacity aims for 2030. If all ambitions in the region are realised, solar PV capacity will increase from 16.5GW in 2022 to over 90GW by 2030.
Even higher amounts could be achieved if some of the nonspecified capacity in government ambitions is allocated to solar PV. High solar irradiation levels and increasing competitiveness make solar PV the main technology choice in the region’s ambitions.
Since 2015, prices awarded for utility-scale solar PV have plunged 75%, from $56/MWH in Jordan’s 2015 tender to $14/MWH in the most recently awarded tender in Abu Dhabi.
“Awarded solar PV prices have dropped for several reasons,” the report further revealed. It said, "First, in addition to global equipment costs falling, the introduction of competitive auctions has helped attract lower bids. Plus, many projects are large and can take advantage of economies of scale to achieve cost reductions (in the last ten years, six of the 24 projects were more than 1GW in size).”
“However, these low prices may not reflect all the costs developers face and may not be replicable in all countries due to certain conditions. Access to state-backed financing and favourable land costs have also contributed to the reductions," IEA added.
Globally, the IEA'S new analysis finds that countries have a significant opportunity over the coming months to develop clear plans for boosting renewable power that could help move the world closer to achieving the COP28 goal of tripling global capacity by 2030.
The report finds that while renewable power is at the heart of achieving international energy and climate goals, very few countries have explicitly laid out 2030 targets for installed capacity in their existing Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCS, under the Paris Agreement.
Official commitments in NDCS currently amount to 1 300GW – just 12% of what is required to meet the global tripling objective set in Dubai, the IEA noted.
Middle East and North Africa region aims to realise its significant untapped renewable energy potential by increasing capacity from less than 50GW in 2022 to 200GW by 2030, according to IEA