Poll reveals public’s dismay about economy
The National-coalition Government has slipped behind Labour and its likely partners in the latest political poll, which shows that the public’s view of the economy is worsening.
A poll by Labour’s pollster Talbot Mills Research for the firm’s corporate clients, which that has been obtained by Stuff, shows the coalition parties – National, ACT and NZ First – lacking sufficient public support to form a government if an election were held today. The next election is in 2026.
The poll showed that Labour-GreensTe Pāti Māori together would have a oneseat edge in the House, presuming Te Pāti Māori once again won six electorate seats, and NZ First remained aligned with the centre-right parties.
It was the first such outcome for the centre-left bloc in this poll since June 2023. However, shifts in the polling were within the margin of error of 3.1%.
The result is unlikely to be a shock to the Government
It echoes recent polls which have shown that overall, the coalition parties have not succeeded in substantially improving their public support, compared to the result of the October election, including a 1News-Verian poll which showed that NZ First lacked enough support to re-enter Parliament. Other polls have shown the Government parties retaining an edge.
While the support for political parties has not varied greatly in recent months, there had been a shift in how New Zealanders feel the country is faring.
Some 52% of those polled said the country was on the “wrong track”, up from 41% in February. Whereas 38% thought the country was headed in the “right direction”, and 10% were unsure.
More also felt that economic conditions were poor or “not so good”, at 84%, an increase of 11 percentage points from February.
There was a corresponding drop in the percentage of those surveyed who thought the economy was “good” or “excellent”, from 25% in February to 16% this month.
The poll, taken during the first 10 days of
May, comes after months of Government spending cuts in advance of the Budget, including culling thousands of public sector jobs. Asked about their concern over public sector cuts and their impact on the quality of public services, 60% of those surveyed said they were either “moderately concerned” or “very concerned”.
This concern was elevated among supporters of Labour, the Green Party, and Tē Pāti Māori. The majority of National, ACT and NZ First supporters were either “not at all concerned” or “a bit concerned”.
Prime Minister Christopher Luxon has also been unable to match the favourability rating of the past three elected prime ministers, six months into a new Government. His net favourability, at 42%, falls short of the same rating for Jacinda Ardern at 75%, John Key at 64%, and Helen Clark at 77%.
It was also lower than Labour leader Chris Hipkins’ net favourability, according to this poll, which stood at 52%.
Hipkins also achieved the “highly unusual feat” of drawing equal with Luxon in the question of who was the preferred prime minister, with both gaining the support of 25% of those surveyed.