The Post

Why there’s no light at the end of this plan

Imagine you’re a young kid and you desperatel­y want a new bike. Your parents say times are hard, and they’re struggling to make ends meet. Your school lunch has been lacking luxuries and this year’s summer holiday was a trip to your aunty’s place. Then one day Dad comes home with a brand-new SUV. There was nothing much wrong with the old family car, but Dad is over the moon with his new toy with all its gadgets.

That’s how I felt when I learned that Waka Kotahi was investigat­ing building a 4-kilometre tunnel under Wellington City, from north of the Terrace Tunnel to Kilbirnie. That’s almost twice as long as Auckland’s Waterview Tunnel.

In the government’s recent draft land transport statement, cycling and pedestrian infrastruc­ture was to be cut, and passengers would have to pay more for public transport. Times are hard, said the government, we all need to make sacrifices. I didn’t quite agree, but if an austerity government cuts equally from different areas, at least they’re being coherent.

Yet like a person whose has recently put on weight, rather than walking more and eating healthier, this government has gone straight to the transport equivalent of scoping a stomach-staple operation.

So how much will this tunnel cost? That’s the billion-dollar question. A rough estimate of $3.1 billion was made in early 2021 and high inflation has kicked in since then. Some estimates are around $9 billion. If you thought Nicola Willis was prudent to cancel a $3 billion ferry project, think again. And let’s not even go there on the seismic risks of a long tunnel under a built-up city.

If it was a Public-Private Partnershi­p like Transmissi­on Gully, which was initially costed at $850 million and ended up costing $1.25 billion, it might be subject to the same nearly 50% budget blowout. Apply that to a Wellington tunnel and we might be talking $13.5 billion. That could be a lot of doctors at the Kenepuru Hospital after-hours.

And who pays? Our city council is broke and should be spending money on fixing the pipes and other infrastruc­ture projects it has already started. The last thing it needs is another one to embark upon.

Our regional council has finally, at great cost and effort, got the lousy bus system, if not completely fixed, then much more reliable than during the Bustastrop­he years. They have signalled the massive investment that needs to be made to the region’s rail in the future – although it’s not that massive when compared to the cost of the tunnel.

Forget significan­t local body funding. That’s why knowing how we pay for a possible tunnel, not just how much it might cost, is so important. I have paid tolls in Auckland so I could drive quicker to Northland and it’s an easy system.

I would happily pay a toll for Transmissi­on Gully if it meant taxes or rates were less. If our economy is as broken due to previous mismanagem­ent as this government says it is, then committing billions to a tunnel without a funding mechanism such as a toll is folly. And if you want to further alienate Wellington from the rest of the country, publicly fund a massive tunnel whose primary purpose is to get people who fly a lot, such as MPs, to the airport.

Only 30% of cars coming into Wellington head to the eastern suburbs so the problems of Wellington’s congestion will not be solved by a mega-tunnel. If the minister wants fewer heavy vehicles and trucks in the inner city, all he has to do is ban them at certain times, as they do in London. The law of induced demand states that if you build more roads that cost nothing to drive on, more people will take up the opportunit­y, so corridors aimed to ease congestion become congested. That may be why I find it quicker to get off at Aotea Quay and drive through the city than to go through the Terrace Tunnel and wait for ages at the lights.

Sadly, this government has not presented one idea to reduce the demand for people to drive cars. It’s not just about improving pedestrian and cycling infrastruc­ture and better public transport. It’s about incentivis­ing car-pooling and travelling at non-peak times. It’s about encouragin­g students to attend local schools, it’s about improving suburban hospitals, like Kenepuru and Hutt, so that there’s not a daily trek in Newtown for patients and visitors.

If you really want to save air travellers 15 minutes, double the number of airport security portals so passengers could whip through at busy times – far less expensive than $9 billion and counting.

But I’m not holding my breath. The private car rules and seems to be the primary focus of the government’s transport policy. Ironically, a slim young man who could probably beat the pants off this chubby old boomer in an uphill cycle race, seems to be the embodiment of narrow, tunnel-visioned, middle-aged, single-passenger-vehicle road rage in politician form.