The New Zealand Herald

Macron hopes to contain far right

Decision to call snap election a risky move

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The surge of the far right in France in elections for the European Parliament was widely expected. What came next was not. French President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap legislativ­e election, saying he could not ignore the new political reality after his proEuropea­n party was handed a chastening defeat and projected to garner less than half the support of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.

He hopes that voters will band together to contain the far right in national elections in a way they didn’t in European ones.

But Monday’s decision to dissolve parliament and send to the polls voters who just expressed their discontent with Macron’s politics was a risky move that could result in the French far right leading a government for the first time since World War II.

Macron, who has three years left on his second and final presidenti­al term, would then have to find a way to work with a prime minister from a party that deeply opposes most of his policies.

How did French voters cast their ballots?

The far-right National Rally, led by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, is projected to win the most French seats in the European Parliament, potentiall­y as many as 30 of France’s 81, with a provisiona­l count showing them with more than 30 per cent of France’s vote.

That would be the culminatio­n of a rebranding campaign that sought to appeal to moderate voters following decades of racist, antisemiti­c statements by leaders of the party then known as the National Front.

Macron’s Renaissanc­e party has less than 15 per cent according to the latest estimates — just ahead of the Socialists, whom the French President thought he had managed to obliterate from the political scene when he was first elected in 2017.

The leftist France Unbowed party could finish in fourth place with about 10 per cent of the vote, and the conservati­ve Republican­s about 7 per cent.

Why did Macron call an election? Macron’s centrist party was the biggest in the National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, though it lost its majority in 2022, forcing lawmakers to work with politician­s on the left and the right to pass bills.

In the face of the far right’s crushing victory at the European elections, Macron called the election because he feared the results would lead to paralysis in the legislatur­e and leave him a lame duck leader three years before the next Presidenti­al election in 2027, his advisors said.

The National Assembly president, Yael Braun-Pivet, also said the President wanted to show he was responsive to voters. “We are told too often that we do not hear, that we are cut off from the people, and there, the President took a decision following a very clear vote by the French,” BraunPivet said.

What are the risks?

French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne said Macron’s decision to call elections is not “a poker move”.

But with a deeply divided left and millions of voters no longer frightened by National Rally’s policies, betting on a popular surge against the far right three weeks before the balloting looks like a high-stakes bid.

The National Rally, with its antiimmigr­ation agenda, is now well establishe­d and represents the largest parliament­ary opposition group in the lower house of the parliament. Le Pen made it twice to the second round of the presidenti­al elections after her father Jean-Marie Le Pen did it in 2002. The normalisat­ion strategy has paid off and the party has become mainstream, developing a strong network of officials across France.

Can Macron depend on the left to help him?

The two-round system for the general elections has historical­ly made it difficult for extremist parties to gain ground because mainstream parties work together to isolate those on the fringes. But that strategy may not work this time. In the last general election, Le Pen’s National Rally secured more than 10 times the seats it won five years before.

Far-left politician Francois Ruffin called on all leaders from the left, including the Greens, to unite under a single “Popular Front” banner.

Others on the left suggested similar co-operation.

Still, Raphael Glucksmann, the lead Socialist candidate, accused Macron of caving into the National Rally’s calls for a dissolutio­n of the National Assembly.

He said the move “will remain a stain on Emmanuel Macron’s fiveyear term”, and blamed the French President for what he sees as an “extremely dangerous” game.

Le Pen is riding high

Marine Le Pen said yesterday results showed “the French have sent us a clear message. We tell them, ‘Geez, we’re going to do it’, and we are going to do it with enthusiasm and relief because we want to save this country in three years”, she said, referring to the 2027 presidenti­al election.

For years Le Pen has been the leading figure of the National Rally.

But she took a symbolic step back at the European elections, making way for Bardella.

However, yesterday Le Pen made the hierarchy of power crystal clear.

The party has earmarked Bardella for the role of Prime Minister, and Le Pen has continuing ambitions for the presidency. Bardella had a quick rise to the top after honing his political skills as the president of the party’s youth wing.

Although he has been careful not to overshadow Le Pen, his popularity has grown fast, especially among young people.

What’s next?

If another party, or a coalition, gets a majority of seats at the general election, Macron will be forced to appoint a Prime Minister belonging to that new majority. In such a situation — called “cohabitati­on” in France — the government would implement domestic policies that diverge from the President’s plan.

The French President would have sway, however, over the country’s foreign and defence policy. Such an arrangemen­t could make France almost ungovernab­le.

 ?? Photo / AP ?? French President Emmanuel Macron has three years left on his second and final presidenti­al term.
Photo / AP French President Emmanuel Macron has three years left on his second and final presidenti­al term.

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