2% chance that another pandemic will hit, but we are prepared, virologist says
There is a two per cent chance that another pandemic will hit, virologist Chris Barbara said, but we are prepared for it.
Four years ago, on 7 March 2020, the first Covid-19 case was recorded in Malta, starting what turned out to be a long and painful battle against the virus. In Malta, 885 people have died while positive for Covid, including two who died this very week.
In total, 121,410 cases have been officially recorded in Malta, according to the latest statistics.
Recalling the early days of the virus in comments to The Malta Independent, Barbara said that the virus travelled rapidly and early from Wuhan, China due to airline travel. Barbara said that humans at the time were “naïve” immunologically, meaning that the body had never encountered this virus before and so the body had to create a totally new offensive reaction to the virus. Whilst this was happening, people were not even aware that they were infected, as no commercially-available diagnostic tests were available, and so the spread of the disease was rampant with the number of infected doubling or tripling in a matter of days.
Barbara said that the individuals who ended up hospitalized or worse had the disadvantage of a “cytokine storm,” which is an overly-aggressive reaction to the virus to the detriment of the patient. This appeared to happen more frequently in the elderly and people who suffered from chronic inflammatory conditions, thus making them particularly vulnerable.
Regarding the possibility of another pandemic in any given year, Barbara said that the probability is 2%, according to extensive research. However, it appears that the risk is increasing with climate change, he said. That said, following the ordeal of the pandemic, Barbara believes we are better prepared should a new pandemic hit.
Firstly, Malta had opted to follow the WHO’s PRET Tool during the pandemic, which facilitates collective action and information sharing between countries, he said. Secondly, the sheer magnitude of the pandemic helped increase Malta’s ability to deal with a high influx of patients. Finally, the Mater Dei pathology labs have increased their capacity for molecular diagnostic testing, which he said is crucial for quick and efficient diagnosis, thus curbing the development of future outbreaks.
Regarding the mRNA vaccines, Barbara said that they will serve to fill the gap between already available vaccines and those vaccines for pathogens yet to infect humans. An added advantage of the mRNA vaccines is that they are faster to produce on the fly than previously used vaccines, he said. Barbara added that the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have entered Phase 1 of the clinical trial of the application of the mRNA technology on HIV.
A further benefit to mask wearing was found. According to Barbara, it was found that the natural heating of the nasal passages, aided by the masks’ insulation, enhanced immunity around the nose. This is in addition to decreasing droplets in the air, their original purpose, he said.
Ultimately, Barbara believes that the Maltese people responded well to the pandemic through their compliance to public health advice concerning personal hygiene and sanitation.