PublicInvest: Malaysia’s PMI to stay below 50-point threshold
Malaysia’s Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is likely to remain below the pivotal 50-point threshold in the near term, mirroring the global manufacturing PMI.
Public Investment Bank Bhd (PublicInvest) said this is given the persisting interplay of prevailing factors that mirror enduring fragility in external demand.
“We anticipate this trend to persist before bottoming out in the latter part of the first half of this year,” it said in a note.
Malaysia’s manufacturing PMI held steady at 47.9 last month.
According to S&P Global, the recent PMI figures suggest that gross domestic product growth is sustaining a comparable momentum to that observed in the second and third quarters of last year.
Meanwhile, PublicInvest said the World Semiconductor Trade Statistics forecasts a robust recovery in global semiconductor sales for this year, now estimated at a growth rate of 13.1 per cent, up from the previous projection of 11.8 per cent.
This anticipated growth marks a potential pivotal moment for Malaysia’s manufacturing sector and the global semiconductor industry, it said.
Furthermore, PublicInvest said the Finance Ministry anticipates a 5.5 per cent expansion in exports of manufactured goods this year, further underpinning the positive outlook.
“We expect Malaysia’s exports of goods and services to rebound to a positive growth of 5.4 per cent this year.
“However, sustained downside risks persist, including the potential for prolonged tightening of financial and monetary conditions, continued drag on China’s economy from the property sector, and ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China, alongside geopolitical tensions in the Middle East,” it added.