Analysts: Raisi’s death won’t change Iran’s foreign policy
PARIS: The death of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi in a helicopter crash could lead to a period of political instability but is unlikely to change Iran’s foreign policy or its role in the Middle East, analysts said on Monday.
The hardline cleric was considered a favorite to succeed supreme leader Ali Khamenei, 85, who has ultimate authority in Iran, and Raisi’s death will pose a challenge to the country’s authorities in ensuring the stability of the political system. But analysts are betting on the continuity of the Islamic republic’s foreign policy which is the domain of Ayatollah Khamenei and the secretive Supreme National Security Council. “A successor may emerge who is as conservative and loyal to the system as Raisi was,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran specialist at the International Crisis Group. “On foreign policy, the supreme leader and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps will continue to dominate strategic decisions”, he said on social media site X, anticipating “more continuity than change”.
Farid Vahid, an Iran expert at the Fondation Jean-Jaures, said that “Raisi was absolutely in lockstep with the Guard Corps”, which “has left a lot of room and freedom for the Guards in the region”. With Raisi, “decision-making was very fluid because he was completely subservient to the leader”, Vahid told AFP.
“The question for the Iranian conservatives is to find someone who will be elected ... and who will not cause them too many problems.” Iran is scheduled to hold presidential elections within 50 days to replace Raisi, with vice president Mohammad Mokhber, 68, to assume interim duties. Raisi’s death comes at a time tensions are soaring between the Islamic republic and the Zionist entity. Those tensions peaked in mid-April, when the Zionist entity allegedly bombed Iran’s embassy complex in Syria, destroying the consulate building in the capital Damascus, killing at least seven officials. —AFP