Harris has key role in securing Ukraine’s future inside the EU
Since Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, there is now a well-established tradition of political leaders visiting Kyiv. You might say this has become almost a political rite of passage.
Their presence in the Ukrainian capital gives physical manifestation to their pledge to “stand by Ukraine” and show their opposition to Putin’s war of aggression against the Ukrainian people. Last week’s visit to Kyiv by Simon Harris was part of that honourable tradition.
In welcoming the Taoiseach, Volodymyr Zelensky made two telling points. The first related to refugees and the second to Ukraine’s EU membership ambitions.
The Ukrainian president thanked the people of Ireland, saying: “I know that after the beginning of the invasion by Russia of our land, you’ve accepted and really have warmly welcomed more than 100,000 citizens of Ukraine.”
The significance of that number of Ukrainian refugees in Ireland has not been lost on anyone in Ukraine. On a per head of population basis, at 17 refugees per 1,000 people, Ireland has taken in more Ukrainian refugees than much larger countries such as Germany and the UK.
Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and
Poland have taken in far more refugees on a per capita basis as well as in absolute numbers.
Knowing what it’s really like to be given a hug by the Russian Bear, eastern European countries have not only supported extraordinary numbers of refugees, they have also given disproportionate amounts of GDP in military aid to Ukraine.
For historical reasons, Ireland is in no position to provide meaningful military aid. Instead, as Harris reiterated during his Kyiv visit, Ireland will continue with humanitarian aid to Ukraine.
To that end, Harris and Zelensky signed a 10-year co-operation agreement through which Ireland will donate €128m in non-lethal military support. The Irish government will give an additional €36m in humanitarian assistance this year.
No one in Ukraine, Ireland or anywhere else is under any illusion that €128m in “non-lethal military support” over 10 years will make the slightest difference in expelling Russia’s forces from Ukraine.
A key to understanding the warm welcome Harris received in Kiev may be found in Zelensky’s comments on the bilateral agreement: “Ireland’s participation in the reconstruction of Ukraine will be a substantial support for our people and our European way of life.”
Zelensky’s use of the phrase “our European way of life” is code for EU membership. Harris made clear the Irish Government will work with Zelensky and his government on the “pathway” to EU membership.
The use of the slippery word “pathway” was a recognition by Harris and undoubtedly an acceptance by Zelensky that the route to Ukrainian EU membership will have many twists and turns, with no guarantee of success.
But in reminding the leader of one of the EU’s 27 member states about Ukraine’s “European way of life”, Zelensky may have had a more short-term future in mind.
Unlike Harris, Zelensky is faced with the very real prospect of his country being overrun by Russia.
For more than a year, the Ukrainian front line has been under severe pressure. The Russian army is doing what it has done best for what seems like centuries: exchanging large quantities of human flesh and blood for small gains in territory.
The Ukrainians have fought with uncommon bravery and shown degrees of military innovation that have set new standards for how future wars will be conducted. Yet the Russian advance continues.
Ukraine’s invasion of Kursk was meant to divert Russian forces from the Donetsk front, but Putin does not seem to have taken the bait.
It’s a war of attrition that Zelensky knows has become unsustainable. Ukraine’s population has fallen 20pc since the war began. Its economy and energy infrastructure have been devastated by Russian aerial bombardment.
With winter just around the corner, the absence of heat and light will force more Ukrainians to flee, swelling the ranks of the six million already seeking refuge abroad. Meanwhile, polls indicate that support
We are almost completely reliant on the Royal Navy and Royal Air Force
for the war among ordinary Ukrainians is decreasing rapidly.
Most devastating of all is the stark realisation by Ukraine’s civil and military leadership that the West is never going to provide Ukraine with the military means to defeat Putin.
For almost three years, the West has given Ukraine massive military aid that has allowed the country to survive. Nevertheless, that vital aid has always arrived a day late and a dollar short.
Zelensky is probably making the realistic appraisal that the unpalatable prospect of having to negotiate with the war-criminal Putin is becoming ever closer.
When that day dawns, Ukraine will need all the support it can garner. In particular, the support of the EU will be vital if Ukraine is not to end up as an emasculated vassalstate under autocratic Russia.
Rightly or wrongly, Ireland has chosen to eschew any benefits that might accrue from having military power and has opted instead for so-called soft power.
One downside is that we are almost completely reliant on Britain’s Royal Navy to defend our seas and the Royal Air Force to protect our skies from Russian aggression.
In a negotiated endgame in Ukraine, if soft power has any meaning, there might be an opportunity for Ireland.
This, however, will depend largely on the political skills of a politician such as Harris. If he were to rise to that challenge, that would indeed be a considerable advance in a very honourable tradition.