Von der Leyen has to walk tightrope today to return to power
Ursula von der Leyen will today pitch herself as an experienced leader who can give the European Union stability at a time when war rages in Ukraine and Donald Trump looks likely to return to the White House. However, she faces a tough battle as she seeks the backing of a majority in the new European Parliament to ratify her appointment for another five years as head of the policy-guiding European Commission.
Ms Von der Leyen has already been endorsed by EU heads of government, including Taoiseach Simon Harris, and on paper her endorsement by the three biggest political groups, with a combined total of more than 400 MEPs, should be enough.
But there is a large number of dissenters in the three groupings of the European People’s Party, to which Fine Gael is aligned; the Socialists, which includes Labour; and the liberal Renew group, where Fianna Fáil sits. Since most of the other groups oppose Ms Von der Leyen’s return, there are doubts about her getting the required 361 votes to win. Her difficulties are compounded by a secret ballot.
Most of Ireland’s 14 MEPs are set to vote against a Von der Leyen second term, but the four Fine Gael MEPs will support her, in line with government policy, while the four representing their coalition partners from Fianna Fáil have declared they will vote against her, causing embarrassment for party leader and Tánaiste Micheál Martin.
Fianna Fáil MEP Billy Kelleher said he was prepared to reconsider his stated opposition to Ms Von der Leyen, but said she had failed to address the issue of her stance on Gaza. He accuses her of being too unquestioningly supportive of Israel, undermining the EU’s role as honest broker in the Middle East.
Other MEPs across different groupings and member states take a similar view, and there was fury at Ms Von der Leyen’s actions when Hamas invaded Israel last October amid allegations that she exceeded her authority. But Seán Kelly, the leader of the Fine Gael Euro grouping, has argued that her missteps on Gaza are outweighed by good work on other issues, and he cited her support for Ireland in the wake of Brexit.
The Taoiseach has called on Irish MEPs to back Ms Von der Leyen in the interest of EU unity and continuity. He also stressed the need to get a key commission post for Ireland’s Brussels appointee, Michael McGrath, to maintain Irish influence in the bloc.
Each of the 27 EU member states has a commissioner, but influential jobs are scarce and Ms Von der Leyen’s goodwill can help maintain Ireland’s political relevance. The Fianna Fáil MEPs reject that view, arguing that the issues are separate and their stance is consistent with Ireland’s recognition of Palestinian statehood.
Much will depend on the tone and content of Ms Von der Leyen’s speech to the parliament meeting in Strasbourg. If she fails, the EU will be plunged into disarray and the heads of government will have to pick a new president of commission.