It’s a health record versus a criminal history as Biden and Trump ready to face off on TV
Both candidates have lots of points they can score in this CNN debate
Rarely, if ever, has one candidate in a US presidential debate had so much material to use against the other. Republican Donald Trump has been convicted of 34 felony counts with serious charges in three other indictments still pending.
When US president, Trump nominated three of the justices who voted to overturn Roe v Wade, eroding abortion access in America and creating a backlash even in conservative-led states. And his sweeping second-term plans include promises of retribution against political enemies.
Yet the big question for President Joe Biden, fairly or not, is whether he has the physical and mental capacity at 81 years old to press the case against Trump. Perhaps nothing matters more than the level of energy and strength the Democratic incumbent projects on stage.
Both men have glaring flaws that present their opponent with tremendous opportunity, and risk. They will face a huge national audience that will include many people tuning into their 2020 rematch for the first time and who won’t see another debate until September, magnifying each success or mistake.
Biden and Trump will face off Thursday at 9pm local time for 90 minutes inside a CNN studio in Atlanta, Georgia.
Here are some key points: Biden’s seeming low bar for success has been created, at least in part, by the 78-year-old Trump and his Republican allies, who have relentlessly mocked the Democratic president for apparent stumbles connected to his age for years. Trump’s allies have questioned whether Biden can even stay awake and stand up for the entire 90 minutes.
Democrats are hopeful that Biden can bring the same energy he did in his State of the Union address earlier in the year. But a face-off on live television against an opponent who delights in verbal combat is very different from a scripted speech before Congress.
Biden’s team is aware he cannot afford to have a bad night with the nation watching.
Having already locked up his base, Trump has an opportunity with persuadable swing voters and moderates who fuelled Biden’s victory four years ago and now express concerns about both candidates.
But to win over the so-called “double haters”, Trump cannot simply lean into the red-meat talking points, personal insults and conspiracy theories. Instead of more talk of retribution or lies about the US election system, he’ll need to offer an optimistic vision for the future and a clear contrast with Biden on basic issues such as healthcare and education.
He was widely panned for his outbursts in the first 2020 debate with Biden, badgering the then-Democratic nominee and repeatedly interrupting him. Their second debate took a milder tone and focused on their sharply different governing visions.
In short, Trump needs to be somewhat boring on Thursday night. Can he stay disciplined? Some allies are hopeful. History may suggest otherwise.
Trump’s extraordinary legal baggage creates opportunity and risk for both candidates on stage.
Biden’s campaign has signalled an increasing willingness to lean into Trump’s criminal record. But aside from a few jabs, Biden himself has largely distanced himself from Trump’s prosecutions to avoid the appearance of political interference.
Trump, who has been alleging for years without evidence that Biden is responsible for prosecuting him, won’t make it easy for the US president to toe that line.
Recent polling shows that about half of US adults approve of Trump’s New York conviction. And if voters don’t think the specific convictions are troublesome, Trump’s attempt to conceal an alleged affair with a porn actress is hardly bumper-sticker material.
Meanwhile, Biden is aware Trump may go after his son, Hunter, as the then-president did on the debate stage four years ago. Hunter Biden was recently convicted on three felony charges related to the purchase of a gun while allegedly being addicted to drugs. Trump has also raised questions about Hunter Biden’s foreign business dealings when his father was US vice-president.
While style sometimes matters more than substance on the debate stage, both candidates have serious policy challenges to navigate.
For Trump, no issue looms larger than abortion. His Supreme Court appointments while president enabled the court to overturn Roe v Wade, which triggered an avalanche of abortion restrictions across the nation. And Biden will be eager to highlight Trump’s role.
Trump, of course, has said he would not support a national abortion ban if re-elected. But given his track record on Roe, he may have more work to do if he hopes to convince women he can be trusted on a key healthcare issue.
Biden’s greatest political liability, meanwhile, may be immigration. The Democrat’s administration has struggled to limit the number of immigrants entering the country at the US-Mexico border. His allies privately acknowledge the issue is a major political liability heading into the autumn.
Trump loves nothing more than highlighting illegal immigration, so expect him to pound Biden on the issue.
At the same time, Biden will face tough questions about his leadership in the war between Israel and Hamas. The US president has alienated some would-be supporters on both sides given his staunch support – and occasional criticism – of Israel.
He’ll have a major opportunity to defend his record on the complicated issue Thursday night. It won’t be easy.