Picking right successor is crucial – this Budget holds key to the election
Who will replace Michael McGrath at the cabinet table if and when he goes to Brussels? Micheál Martin outlined his proposals to his coalition partners last night – the Taoiseach, Simon Harris, and outgoing Green Party leader Eamon Ryan.
The deed is already done; the commissionership is in Fianna Fáil’s grasp and will mean the elevation of McGrath, both he and Micheál Martin having previously accommodated Paschal Donohoe becoming the president of the Eurogroup – those countries using the single currency.
If McGrath’s nomination is practically rubber-stamped, there will be more concern among his colleagues over his proposed successor at Merrion Street, home of the all-powerful Department of Finance.
McGrath’s resignation from the Dáil will create a fifth by-election requirement, heightening the likelihood of a general election this autumn instead of the Coalition going all the way, as has been the insistence to this point.
If that’s going to be the case – a run to the country – then the final budget of this Government becomes crucial.
All three parties will be campaigning on it, and warning of the dangers of handing over the keys of the counting-house to reckless spendthrifts.
Who can slot in to replace Mr McGrath with as little disruption as possible?
The Budget is due at the beginning of October and, of course, will have the final oversight of the three leaders, but it still has to be framed for maximum effect – no matter what the Fiscal Advisory Council might think of it.
A set of mathematics that effectively becomes an election manifesto will have to show judgment, fine detail and discernment, even if McGrath will largely sketch the outline for the person who fills his shoes.
But it is also an outside possibility that McGrath may be in place to deliver the Coalition’s final budget, as the current EU Commission remains in office until November. We’ll know soon enough.
Housing Minister Darragh O’Brien is an early frontrunner and would be a popular choice within the party. As director of elections for the local and European elections earlier this month, he can claim a major slice of credit.
He has also handled the tough brief of housing, where progress has been slow but is evident – fending off fierce attacks from Sinn Féin, People Before Profit and others.
Another contender mentioned is junior trade minister Dara Calleary, a former agriculture minister in this Dáil who fell on his sword because of
Golfgate. He’s a former spokesman on public expenditure and holds a business degree.
Then there are Jack Chambers and Norma Foley “in the mix”.
Chambers, from Dublin West, where they breed big beasts and where Roderic O’Gorman could soon become Green Party leader, is highly regarded. However, he has just been promoted to Fianna Fáil deputy leader, and it’s a reasonable guess that he has been bought off with this bauble in anticipation of the plum job in the Government going to another.
While Chambers has served as a junior minister at the Department of Finance, it is not his natural inclination. Like his constituency colleague from the “other crowd”, Leo Varadkar, he is actually a qualified medical doctor.
Meanwhile, Kerry TD Norma Foley, current Education Minister, is bubbling under. Although a favourite of Martin, a switch into such an important position would be distinctly unusual for a first-time deputy who already bucked the odds to enter the Cabinet.