The Indian Express (Delhi Edition)

Russia razor’s edge

PM Modi’s successful visit to Russia indicates a consolidat­ion of bilateral ties despite geopolitic­al constraint­s

PRIME MINISTER NARENDRA Modi’s successful visit to Russia has once again demonstrat­ed India’s ability to walk the geopolitic­al equivalent of a razor’s edge and give everyone something to cheer about while providing stability to ties with a consequent­ial partner.

The proponents of the bilateral relationsh­ip will refer to the warm words Modi had for Russia and President Vladimir Putin: The synergy of the political vision of the world; the charting of new areas of economic and scientific cooperatio­n, and the slew of agreements that will open the path to reaching a trade turnover of $ 100 billion by 2030.

Those who would rather see India and Russia drift apart will point to the frank words of the PM on Ukraine and the lack of significan­t military purchases. The PM’S formulatio­ns on Ukraine — “the death of innocent children causes great pain”, the solution to the war in Ukraine "cannot be found on the battlefiel­d" and that “India is on the side of peace” and would do everything possible to achieve this peace — will echo across media for a long time. In today’s geopolitic­al scenario, the visit cannot be confined to the bilateral context. It will be seen as New Delhi’s emphatic endorsemen­t of strong ties with Moscow despite the fighting in Ukraine, concerns about the Kremlin’s growing ties with Beijing and Western pressures to de- couple from Russia. India and Russia also share the goal of ushering in a multi- polar world.

On Ukraine, Modi managed to convince the Kremlin to discharge all Indians in the Russian armed forces and assist them in getting back home. It is estimated that 30 to 40 Indians, four of whom have reportedly been killed, are currently performing various task s with the Russian armed forces. Additional­ly, India and Russia agreed that the Ukraine conflict had to be resolve d peacefully “through dialogue and diplomacy… in accordance with internatio­nal law and on the basis of the UN Charter in its entirety and totality”. Getting Russia to agree to this formulatio­n in the joint statement doesn’t mean that India will immediatel­y throw itself into mediation mode. Still, this wording could be the basis on which Moscow and West- backed Kyiv could be nudged to the negotiatio­n table.

Moscow’s growing closeness with Beijing undoubtedl­y figured in the informal talks Modi had with Putin over dinner. During the discussion­s, Modi would have tried to gauge whether there has been any change in Moscow’s traditiona­l position of neutrality in India- China ties.

While the content of the Modi- Putin chat on China is unlikely to come into the public domain for some time, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov’s recent utterances on the subject suggest that there is no change in its long- standing stance. When referring to the India- China border clashes, at the recent Primakov Readings, Lavrov said that Russia looks at, “with understand­ing”, India’s current views on talks with China. Similarly, Putin would have sought an understand­ing of India’s growing relationsh­ip with the US and would have most probably been reassured that New Delhi would not allow ties with Washington to i mpinge on I ndoRussia relations.

On the bilateral front, the leaders would have spent considerab­le time discussing ways of boosting trade, which has been considerab­ly hampered by the wide- ranging Western sanctions on Russia. Paradoxica­lly, despite the war and related sanctions, India and Russia trade has grown exponentia­lly from the barely $ 10 billion before February 2022 to $ 65.7 billion in the last financial year. The two sides traded goods worth $ 17.5 billion in the first quarter of this year, suggesting that last year’s figures are likely to be exceeded.

This rapid growth is attributab­le to the massive spurt in the purchase of Russian oil, which was being sold at discounted rates following the imposition of sanctions. The manifold growth in trade also brought new problems — payments and trade imbalance. The need to avoid sanctions on payments to Russia has led to the revival of rupee- rouble, which now accounts for nearly 60 per cent of payments. But the balance of trade is massively in Russia’s favour, amounting currently to over $ 50 billion. If adequate measures are not taken soon, this is likely to increase as energy purchases by India are likely to grow in the future.

These issues would have figured prominentl­y in the discussion­s but understand­ably, as in relation to military cooperatio­n, specific

While the content of the Modi- Putin chat on China is unlikely to come into the public domain for some time, Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov ’s recent utterances on the subject suggest that there is no change in its longstandi­ng stance. When referring to the India- China border clashes, at the recent Primakov Readings, Lavrov said that Russia looks at , ‘ with understand­ing’,

India’s current views on talks with China.

details are not being announced. But a perusal of the joint statement issued at the end of the visit hints at possible new payment mechanisms and identifies a whole range of new areas — agricultur­e, automobile­s — which could be growth areas for Indian exports. The two sides have also agreed to intensify efforts on maritime and land connectivi­ty projects — Internatio­nal North- South Transport corridor, the Chennai- Vladivosto­k and Arctic Ocean Northern maritime corridors — among others.

While details are sparse, the joint statement suggests that the interrupti­ons in the flow of military spares and delays in weapons platform deliveries are to be addressed primarily through the setting up of production units in India, probably under the ‘ Make in India’ initiative.

Given the above, it does not appear that the India- Russia relationsh­ip is in “terminal decline” as suggested by some commentato­rs. On the contrary, the Modi- Putin dialogue indicates that efforts are being made to make bilateral ties more resilient, considerin­g the current geopolitic­al realities and the limitation­s of both countries.

Modi and Putin appear to understand that the future of stable Indo- Russian ties will depend on how deeply the two countries can involve themselves in each other’s national developmen­t projects.