The Indian Express (Delhi Edition)

Four phases, six takeaways

It seems the final turnout of Election 2024 will not be too different than in 2019. However, the causes for the turnout staying within a high range seem more localised this time

THE LOK SABHA election of 2024 has crossed its two-third mark. The election is complete in all the southern states, the western states of Rajasthan and Gujarat, central states of Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisga­rh and all of Northeast India. While Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and Himachal Pradesh are yet to get into the poll cycle, the election is partially done in many large states like West Bengal, Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtr­a.

We can make six observatio­ns about the turnouts so far and the trends.

One, the overall drop in turnout after four phases, as compared to Lok Sabha 2019, is 1.9 percentage points (pp). Temporally, across the phases, the turnout drop has decreased in every phase from 3.8 pp in Phase I to 3.3 pp in Phase II to 1.2 pp in Phase III to a small rise in Phase IV of around 0.3 pp. A total of 378 seats have gone to polls so far and turnout has decreased in around two-thirds of them.

Two, considerin­g just the large states with population greater than three crore, there is one geographic­ally contiguous block comprising Gujarat, Rajasthan, MP, UP, Bihar and West Bengal and a second isolated block in South India: Kerala and Tamil Nadu, where turnout is lower by at least 2.5 pp or more. In between these two blocks, there is a third block from Odisha and Chhattisga­rh, Telangana and Maharashtr­a, Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh that has seen an increase in turnouts as compared to 2019. In the two remaining large states, Assam and Jharkhand, in which polls are complete or underway, the turnout is minimally lower by less than 1 pp.

Three, in those states which are seeing multi-phase contests and in which there is a drop in turnout overall of more than 2.5 pp, the drops have progressiv­ely decreased across phases in almost every instance: In Bihar, the average drop in turnouts in Phases I and II combined is 3.9 pp as compared to 1.6 pp in Phases III and IV combined. These improvemen­ts are even starker in MP (8.1 pp drop in Phasesiand­iicombined­ascompared­to1.8pp in Phases III and IV combined) and UP (6.2 pp drop in Phases I and II combined as compared to 1.4 pp drop in Phases III and IV combined). For West Bengal, the trend-line is flatter — 3.4 pp drop in Phases I and II combined, improving slightly to a 3.1 pp drop in Phases III and IV combined.

Four, after the first phase, we saw a distinct pattern. The drop in turnout in seats won by the NDA in 2019 had a more than two-fold drop in turnout as compared to seats won by the INDIA bloc. This pattern is no longer discernibl­e: In seats won by the BJP in 2019, the drop in turnout is 2.2 pp which is similar to the 2.4 pp drop in turnout in seats won by INDIA in 2019. Within NDA, there is not much difference in the drop in turnout in seats won by the BJP as against seats won by other NDA partners — 2.1 pp drop and 2.6 pp drop respective­ly.asagainstt­his,therehasbe­enaslighti­ncrease in turnout (0.5 pp) in seats which were held by non-aligned parties like YSRCP, BJD, AIMIM, etc.

Five, for more local effects, if we focus on turnouts by assembly segments, in West Bengal, UP, Bihar and Rajasthan, the overall turnout drop is almost identical (within 1 pp) inassembly­segmentshe­ldbythetop­twoparties in each state. Similarly, in Maharashtr­a, Telangana, Karnataka and Andhra, the turnout rise in assembly segments held by the top two parties is within 1 pp of each other. Where there are remarkable difference­s are Madhya Pradesh, where the turnout drop in assembly segments held by the INC is 2 pp lesser than those held by the BJP, Gujarat where the drop is 3 pp lesser in the INC seats vs BJP seats and Kerala, where it is 2 pp lesser in CPI(M) seats as compared to INC seats. In UP, the turnout drop in the assembly seats held by the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) is 4 pp more than the average drop in the state. In all these cases, it may mean that a key social base of the lagging party did not turn up.

Six, overall, women seem less enthused about voting this time compared to men, except in a few states. The Election Commission has so far released Pc-wise turnout percentage­s for men and women for Phases 1 to 3. Our analysis of this data suggests that turnout decline among women has been slightly higher than the drop among men — 2.7 points compared to 2.1 points among men. This has resultedin­aslightlyh­ighermen-womengap this time. While women had trailed men by 0.6 points in 2019, this time they are behind by 1.1 points. In 2019, women voted more than men in 115 of the 282 constituen­cies that have voted in Phases 1 to 3. This time, their turnout is higher in only 91 constituen­cies with the steepest falls in UP (from 7 seats to 1), MP (4 to 1), Uttarakhan­d (5 to 3) and Kerala (16 to 11). In Uttarakhan­d where women’s turnout was 6.8 points greater than men’s in 2019, the gender advantage has shrunk to just 2.8 points. In UP, it is a good 2.9 points lower. Maharashtr­a, MP, Rajasthan and Gujarat are the other big states where the turnout drop among women has been higher than men resulting in a higher men-women gap. Only in four major states so far has women’s turnout seen a higher increase than men (Assam, Chhattisga­rh and Karnataka) or has seen a lower decrease than the decrease among men (West Bengal).

What conclusion­s can we draw? First, there is no national pattern, just many statespeci­fic factors that are leading to a rise or fall in turnouts. In the block of states seeing a rise in turnouts, the guarantees by the INC in Karnataka and Telangana, the simultanei­ty of state and national elections in Odisha and Andhra, the heightened emotions in the electorate in Maharashtr­a due to the splits in long-standing state-level parties and the identifica­tion of the tribal population with the first tribal Chief Minister in Chhattisga­rh may have mobilised the electorate. In the ongoing phases in the Hindi heartland and West Bengal, the turnouts are not dropping as much as in the earlier phases, which may denote the heating up of contests. As of now, it seems, the final turnout of Election 2024 will not be too different than in 2019. However, the causes of the turnout staying within this high range of more than 65 per cent seem more localised and variegated than in 2019.

The writers are researcher­s associated with the Bharat Jodo Abhiyaan

The drop in turnout in seats won by the NDA in 2019 had a more than two-fold drop in turnout as compared to seats won by the INDIA bloc. In seats won by the BJP in 2019, the drop in turnout is 2.2 pp which is similar to the 2.4 pp drop in turnout in seats won by INDIA in 2019. Within NDA, there is not much difference in the drop in turnout in seats won by the BJP as against seats won by other NDA partners — 2.1 pp drop and 2.6 pp drop respective­ly. As against this, there has been a slight increase in turnout (0.5 pp) in seats which were held by nonaligned parties.