EXIT POLLS PREDICT NDA’S BIG WIN IN MAHA
BJP may stake claim to chief ministership; Uddhav’s position may be weakened if INDIA bloc does poorly
With most exit polls predicting a victory for the NDA in Maharashtra in the Lok Sabha elections, the political position of Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis is likely to become strong enough for the BJP to stake its claim to chief ministership after the results are out on June 4.
News18 forecast as many as 32-35 of the total 48 seats to the NDA and 15-18 seats to the INDIA Alliance. Republic PMarq gave 29 seats to the NDA and 19 to the opposition bloc. Republic Bharat Martize gave NDA 30-36 seats and 13-19 seats to the INDIA alliance. Only ABP C Voter gave NDA a modest 22-26 seats and 23-25 seats to INDIA combine.
If the predictions of a majority of exit polls come true then it has several political implications for the ruling coalition in Maharashtra and also for the opposition. The BJP, which is the single largest party in the state, would like to stake its claim to the post of chief minister.
When Eknath Shinde along with 36 MLAs revolted against the leadership of Uddhav Thackeray of the Shiv Sena and joined hands with the BJP, the BJP rewarded him with the chief ministership. The BJP’s thinking was that with Shinde in the CM’s chair he would be able to further weaken the rival faction, Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray.
Over the past one year, Shinde has caused sufficient damage to the Shiv Sena (UBT) and to that extent he is less useful for the BJP now. With the assembly elections almost round the corner, the BJP wants to be in the driver’s seat so that it can lead the battle from a position of strength.
At present, Fadnavis is finding that his functioning is being cramped by the presence of Shinde as the CM.
Also, Deputy CM Ajit Pawar of the NCP is one person whom the BJP would like to politically cut down to size.
Pawar’s cussedness is something which is proving to be a major roadblock for Fadnavis to assert himself.
If the INDIA alliance performs poorly, then Thackeray’s position will be further weakened. More of his supporters would find it politically more profitable to gravitate towards Shinde or Fadnavis rather than remain loyal to him. Sharad Pawar’s position will also be further weakened. At 83, he is already becoming a spent force and a setback in the LS polls is likely to put a full stop to his political career. Congress workers are also likely to bay for the blood of MPCC chief Nana Patole, who is an ex-BJP leader.
The Shiv Sena (Shinde) is confident that it will win and all its three candidates – Yamini Jadhav, Rahul Shewale and Ravindra Waikar – would sail through. The BJP is sure of the victory of Piyush Goyal in Mumbai North, which is regarded as a safe seat for the BJP, and also of Mihit Kotecha in Mumbai Northeast. The party is doubtful about the prospects of its nominee Ujjwal Nikam, who was given a tough fight by Varsha Gaikwad, president of the city unit of the Congress.