Maha will be affected by last phases of voting
As the nation approaches the last three phases of polling for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the focus has to be now on cities like Mumbai, Thane, Navi Mumbai and Pune which are part of this last phase. The delimitation exercise taken up by the Election Commission of India undertaken after the census of 2011 put a lot of focus on urban areas as it is understood that Maharashtra is one of the states that are fast moving towards urbanisation. In about seven years almost 50% of the state's population will be living in urban areas.
The Election Commission changed the geographical shapes of many constituencies in the delimitation exercise, pushing many rural areas that fell near large cities into city limits such as including large parts of Baramati into Pune city. This changes the situation in favour of urban voters now. But are the urban voters eager enough to come out and vote? Is there apathy among urban voters when it comes to voting in elections?
In the first four phases of polling for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections there is a clear trend of the turnout being low in urban areas in most parts of the country.
On Monday evening, the fourth phase ended and in many urban areas the turnout was seen to be low. In some cases, the turnout has improved in comparison with the 2019 polls but generally speaking it has been low compared to the national average.
There is some concern among political parties now about how this will affect the results. Conventionally it is believed that low turnout of voters means people are less eager to change the government, but recently some reverse trends have also been experienced.
In the fourth phase in Maharashtra, in places like Beed district in Marathwada region, the voting percentage crossed 69% while in the third phase districts like Latur and some parts of Vidarbha witnessed over 65% voting. While in Pune city constituency in the fourth phase the average voting just about crossed the 50% mark. Here, too, affluent areas like Kothrud saw just about 49% while central areas of the city like Kasba peth, which is the old part of the over 67% voting.
Does low turnout mean the party in power has a larger chance of winning or does the apathy divide equally on both sides of the political divide making the percentage of turnout irrelevant?
In the past elections we have seen cities like Mumbai and Pune having lower voter turnouts. This is partly blamed on adverse weather and partly on voters being carefree in these areas because their basic civic amenities are in any case assured.
It is interesting to see that not city, witnessed just the members of the Opposition but even the parties in power also want maximum voters to come out to vote in large numbers. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will be in Mumbai on Wednesday doing a road show in Mumbai Northeast constituency. He will focus mainly in areas dominated by Gujarati-speaking voters. What is the purpose of this road show? Obviously, it is to attract as many voters to come out and vote.
The BJP thinks more voters coming out will benefit them, especially in a constituency which is witnessing a major fight. This means high turnout can benefit incumbents too!
The voting trends in cities are very important for political parties because they matter in the optics nationally. Metro cities are not just state capitals of their respective states but also seen as mini-India in various parts of the state.
Metro cities hold populations of various caste, religion and linguistic groups.
Leaders and political parties strive to exhibit how they have acceptability among all these citizens, so that in the long term they can project themselves as national leaders or contenders for larger national roles.
The second factor is that of financial power. For the parties or candidates contesting elections, urban areas hold the lure of financial power.
In the fifth phase of polling all six constituencies of Mumbai city as well as Thane and Navi Mumbai will go to the polls. These areas are going to be very crucial for all the parties. Issues of inflation and unemployment have been raised by the opposition nationwide, but in Mumbai and surrounding MMR (Mumbai Metropolitan Region) issues are going to be perhaps very different. They may be focused on urbanisation factors — transport, civic amenities, pollution and health services would be the issues that voters have on their mind.
Realising that urban votes will matter in the overall results, national leaders are now camping in Mumbai and all eyes are now on polling happening on May 20. Prime Minister Modi will spend three days in MMR this week. He is scheduled to hold a huge rally at Shivaji Park ground on the 17th where MNS chief Raj Thackeray will also participate.
As the fifth polling phase approaches, the entire focus now seems to be on winning these urban pockets for all players.
Conventionally it is believed that low turnout of voters means people are less eager to change the government, but recently some reverse trends have also been experienced
Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune